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Mediators and Israeli negotiators were meeting in Qatar on Thursday for a high-stakes push to end the war in Gaza, where tens of thousands have died, as the Middle East braced for an anticipated retaliation against Israel by Iran and its allies that could ignite a broader armed conflict.
The Biden administration and its allies called for the meeting last week, in the hope that making progress toward a Gaza cease-fire might avert or curb the expected Iranian-led reprisals for the recent assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, and Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah military commander.
But Hamas was not expected to participate in the talks on Thursday, and it remained at odds with Israel over the details of a proposed framework for a truce being advanced by the mediators, Egypt and Qatar. Under the three-stage proposal, Hamas would gradually free the remaining hostages in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners jailed by Israel.
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International pressure had already been rising for months for some kind of deal that would end the suffering in Gaza and allow for the release of hostages held in the enclave. The Gazan Health Ministry reported on Thursday that the Palestinian death toll in the war had surpassed 40,000. The ministry’s figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians.
But prospects for a breakthrough still appear remote, leaving the Middle East facing a precarious moment. The United States has sent stealth fighter jets, a carrier group and a guided-missile submarine to the region in anticipation of an Iranian-led attack.
Israel and Hamas have been holding indirect negotiations on and off for months and are still deadlocked over numerous issues, including who would control the Gazan side of the enclave’s border with Egypt and how Israel could prevent armed Hamas fighters from returning to northern Gaza, which has been largely depopulated during the war.
In recent weeks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has toughened his country’s stance on several points. Hamas announced earlier this week that it would not participate in Thursday’s talks, though Hamas has told mediators it was open to consulting afterward should Israel present a serious response to its latest offer from early July, according to two officials familiar with the talks.
Hamas officials have said Mr. Netanyahu’s government is not genuinely interested in reaching a cease-fire, pointing to the assassination of Mr. Haniyeh in Tehran and the prime minister’s decision to introduce new conditions in recent weeks. “Hamas believes the Israeli occupation is trying to buy time with more negotiations,” said Ibrahim al-Madhoun, an Istanbul-based analyst close to Hamas.
In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies continue to insist that Israel rule Gaza indefinitely, and they have already denounced the latest Israeli proposal as tantamount to surrender, vowing to oppose it. If Mr. Netanyahu moves ahead with the deal, his governing coalition could splinter, potentially ending his political career.
Mr. Netanyahu himself has equivocated on the cease-fire deal, saying he supports the three-stage proposal even as he repeatedly promises the Israeli public an “absolute victory” over Hamas. Relatives of hostages held in Gaza have argued that the prime minister has prioritized his hold on power over signing a deal to free their loved ones.
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Yaron Blum, a former Israeli security official who previously led the country’s effort to bring home hostages, said the meeting on Thursday — even if successful — would be just the start of a protracted process of hashing out the details of a deal. But if the talks go poorly, the region could descend into a wider confrontation, he said.
“If everyone doesn’t work in the coming days until white smoke comes out, I don’t see it coming together going forward,” said Mr. Blum. “But there’s still a chance now, because every side realizes that they need to advance.”
The talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Thursday were expected to include the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea, and the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel. The United States was being represented by the C.I.A. chief, William J. Burns, and President Biden’s Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, the White House said. The Qatari prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, was also expected at the table.
The stakes at the talks are particularly high for the families of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. Over 40 of the 115 hostages are now presumed dead, according to the Israeli authorities.
“Every second there are hostages held in captivity is a severe risk to their lives,” said Jon Polin, the father of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, one of eight Israeli-American hostages. Three of them have been declared dead by the Israeli authorities.
In Gaza, most of the enclave’s more than two million people have been displaced, many repeatedly, and are living in tents or temporary lodgings. Finding enough food and safe drinking water is often a daily struggle, and swaths of the coastal enclave have been reduced to rubble.
Anas al-Tayeb, who lives in Jabaliya, just outside of Gaza City, said many there rejoiced in July, the last time mediators said cease-fire talks were progressing. But just a few days later, the Israeli military again stormed neighborhoods in Gaza City.
Mr. al-Tayeb said Israel and Hamas were both responsible for the failure to reach a deal. He wondered why Hamas had declined to accept any of the previous Israeli cease-fire proposals, which have broadly adhered to the three-stage framework.
“Those same conditions were offered before in previous rounds of negotiations,” said Mr. al-Tayeb. “So why didn’t they take it then?”
Rachel Goldberg-Polin, Hersh’s mother, said she believed it was time for everyone to agree to a “true compromise.”
“Not everyone is going to agree,” she said. “But everyone has interests and everyone gets a little bit of the interests they’re looking for. Let’s make that happen and move forward.”
— Aaron Boxerman and Adam Rasgon reporting from Jerusalem
Key Developments
Marking 100 days since the Israeli closure of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, the Gaza government press office said at a news conference on Thursday that the closure had severely hurt Gaza’s health care system. The closure is preventing the entry of medical supplies and aid, and blocking critically ill patients from receiving necessary treatment abroad, a spokesman for the office said. The office estimated that more than 1,000 Gazans had died because they could not leave through the crossing. The Israeli military seized the crossing when it moved into the southern city of Rafah in May, calling it an important step in reducing Hamas’s control over the territory.
Israeli planning authorities on Wednesday formally signed off on a new Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank called Nahal Heletz, one of several set to be authorized in the coming months. In June, Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right settler leader and member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, pushed for measures that would expand settlements, which much of the international community views as illegal, in exchange for agreeing to release hundreds of millions in frozen Palestinian revenues. Mr. Smotrich has said Israel ought to rule the West Bank indefinitely without granting its Palestinian residents equal rights. He also opposes a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza, and last week the White House rebuked him for making what it called “ridiculous charges” against a U.S.-backed truce proposal.
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Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip has lasted more than 10 months, with only one weeklong pause in fighting, in late November. That temporary cease-fire led to the return of 50 Israeli hostages captured during the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners — and raised hopes among mediators and the international community that another deal would follow.
Those hopes were dashed repeatedly over many months of unsuccessful efforts by mediators. In the interim, tensions in the Middle East have risen, particularly in recent weeks after the assassinations of a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and a Hamas leader in Iran, prompting vows from Iran and Hezbollah to retaliate against Israel.
World leaders eager to avert a wider full-scale war believe that an agreement between Israel and Hamas could prevent an escalation. Still, even the most vocal champions of a cease-fire admit that closing a deal will be tough. President Biden on Tuesday told reporters he was “not giving up” on an agreement but that it was “getting harder” to remain optimistic.
On Thursday, negotiators are meeting in Doha, Qatar, to try to reach an agreement. Here’s a timeline of recent talks:
May: President Biden calls for an end to the war.
Declaring Hamas no longer capable of carrying out a major terrorist attack on Israel, Mr. Biden on May 31 pressed for hostilities in Gaza to end and endorsed a new cease-fire plan that he said Israel had offered to win the release of hostages.
“It’s time for this war to end, for the day after to begin,” Mr. Biden said that day. Calling it “a decisive moment,” Mr. Biden put the onus on Hamas to reach an agreement, saying, “Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says it wants a cease-fire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it.”
June: U.N. Security Council passes a cease-fire resolution.
The United Nations Security Council on June 10 adopted a cease-fire plan backed by the United States, with 14 nations in favor and Russia abstaining. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the American ambassador to the United Nations, said that the United States would work to make sure that Israel agreed to the deal and that Qatar and Egypt would work to bring Hamas to the negotiating table.
The resolution followed the same framework that Mr. Biden had endorsed, outlining a three-phase plan that would begin with an immediate cease-fire, the release of all living hostages in exchange for Palestinians being held in Israeli prisons, the return of displaced Gazans to their homes and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The second phase called for a permanent cease-fire with the agreement of both parties, and the third phase consisted of a multiyear reconstruction plan for Gaza and the return of the remains of deceased hostages.
July: Talks in Cairo, Doha and Rome.
When American negotiators met in Doha for talks with Egyptian, Qatari and Israeli officials in early July, some American officials were hopeful that progress was being made. Their optimism persisted when talks continued July 12 in Cairo.
The discussions included two contentious issues: whether Israel would agree to end the war, withdraw from Gaza and respect a permanent cease-fire; and whether Hamas would agree to give up control of the enclave. Both Israel and Hamas were wary about whether the other side was ready to make concessions.
On July 28, negotiators reconvened in Rome. The meeting came as Israel fired on southern Lebanon, responding to a rocket strike from Hezbollah the previous day that killed 12 children in the village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.
Even as fears intensified that a regional war could escalate, negotiators remained stuck over a few key issues, particularly the extent to which Israeli forces would remain in Gaza during a truce and the length of any halt to the fighting. Hamas wanted a permanent truce, while Israel sought the option to resume fighting.
As the month ended, the crisis in the Middle East deepened. Hezbollah confirmed that one of its senior commanders, Fuad Shukr, was killed in an Israeli strike on a suburb of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, and Hamas accused Israel of killing its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Iranian officials and Hamas would say later that Israel was responsible for the assassination, an assessment also reached by several U.S. officials, but Israel has not acknowledged involvement.
John F. Kirby, a White House spokesman, said on July 31 that it was “too soon to know” what impact the developments might have on negotiations but noted that the United States was still in contact with Egypt and Qatar.
August: A ‘final’ proposal.
President Biden and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar on Aug. 8 said that they were prepared to present a “final” cease-fire proposal and called on Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table. In a joint statement, they declared that “the time has come” and insisted that the negotiators meet again on Thursday.
“There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay,” they said, adding, “As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel agreed to the meeting, though it was not clear if he would agree to a deal.
According to documents reviewed by The New York Times, Israel relayed a list of new stipulations in late July to American, Egyptian and Qatari mediators. Mr. Netanyahu’s office on Tuesday rejected that characterization, saying he sought only to clarify ambiguities. His office accused Hamas of demanding numerous changes.
Hamas’s willingness to compromise is unclear. The group requested its own extensive revisions throughout negotiations and ceded some smaller points in July. On Tuesday a Hamas official said the group would not participate in the new round of negotiations.
Hamas’s absence does not signal that the talks will be fruitless. Its leaders have not met directly with Israeli officials during the war, relying instead on Qatar and Egypt to relay proposals. Vedant Patel, a State Department spokesman, told reporters in a briefing on Tuesday that Qatar had assured the United States that Hamas would be represented at the meetings.
The talks are likely to include top intelligence officials from Egypt, Israel and the United States, as well as the Qatari prime minister. Mr. Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on Wednesday that he had approved the departure of the Israeli delegation to Doha and its mandate to negotiate.
