Middle East Crisis: Israeli Military at ‘Peak Readiness’ as U.S. Warns Iran Could Attack ‘This Week’

The European leaders and Mr. Biden then issued a joint statement expressing support for efforts to get Hamas and Israel to agree to a cease-fire and urging Iran to “stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel.” Iran has pledged to retaliate after the assassination of a top Hamas leader, Ismael Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31, a killing it attributed to Israel. Israel has not claimed the attack.

The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, both made calls to the newly elected president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, urging him to avoid a military escalation, according to their offices.

Mr. Kirby noted that the United States expected discussions on a cease-fire to resume on Thursday — a date President Biden and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar set last week for talks on a “final” cease-fire proposal. Egypt and Qatar have been mediating the indirect talks between Israel and Hamas.

“We fully expect that to move forward, and they need to move forward,” Mr. Kirby said, though he conceded that if Iran attacked Israel in the intervening days, the discussions might have to be delayed.

The chief spokesman for the Israeli military, Daniel Hagari, said at a news conference clearly intended to reassure a jittery Israeli public that the country’s forces had increased patrols by warplanes over neighboring Lebanon — the base for Hezbollah — and had continued to strike targets there every day “to remove threats.”

“We are prepared at peak readiness in offense and defense, and we will act according to the directives of the government,” he said.

A Pentagon spokesman, Gen. Patrick Ryder, said on Sunday that the secretary of defense, Lloyd J. Austin III, had ordered a guided-missile submarine, the Georgia, to the Middle East. He noted that Mr. Austin had already ordered additional combat aircraft and missile-shooting warships to the region.

The Israeli military said in a statement that Herzi Halevi, the military’s chief of staff, had held a situational assessment on Monday with the head of the intelligence directorate and other military leaders, focusing on “the continuation of a high level of readiness and efforts to prepare for offense and defense.”

Michael D. Shear, Ephrat Livni and Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.

“When Gallant adopts the anti-Israel narrative, he harms the chances of reaching a hostage release deal,” the prime minister’s office said. “Israel has only one choice: To achieve total victory, which means eliminating Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and releasing our hostages. This victory will be achieved.”

Realizing that goal, Mr. Netanyahu’s office said, was the directive of the prime minister and the cabinet, which everyone in the government, including Mr. Gallant, must follow.

Mr. Gallant, in a post on social media on Monday, seemed to play down his differences with Mr. Netanyahu. “During a security briefing I gave today to the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, I emphasized I was determined to achieve the war’s goals and continue fighting until Hamas is dismantled and the hostages are returned,” he said.

Pointedly, he also criticized whoever had leaked what happened in a closed-door meeting. “One of the main vulnerabilities revealed in the war, against which we must act with full force, are the incessant leaks from sensitive and classified meetings,” he said. Mr. Gallant stressed his career of public service and commitment to Israel’s security, noting that Israel was facing challenging days ahead.

Firing Mr. Gallant was not on the agenda for Mr. Netanyahu, according to a second Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity and was not authorized to communicate with reporters. Mr. Netanyahu could still oust Mr. Gallant from his role at a later date, if he decides to take such action.

The rift comes during a critical week in the conflict, when Israel is bracing for an expected retaliation from Iran and its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, even as intense diplomatic efforts are underway to hammer out a cease-fire in the Gaza conflict and avert a wider war.

For months, Mr. Netanyahu has said that he was committed to dismantling Hamas’s military and government, and to freeing Israeli hostages. But senior members of the Israeli security establishment have argued that the two goals can’t be achieved simultaneously. Many security officials have argued that a cease-fire agreement with Hamas is the only way to bring the roughly 115 dead and living hostages home.

Hamas has consistently said any cease-fire agreement should include an end to the war and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Mr. Netanyahu has suggested he would only be open to a temporary pause in the war of several weeks.

Mr. Gallant, a member of Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party, has frequently been at odds with the prime minister, clashing with him over legislation seeking the overhaul of the Israeli judiciary, proposals for the future administration of Gaza, and the cease-fire talks.

After more centrist politicians left Mr. Netanyahu’s government in June, many political analysts said Mr. Gallant, who was a senior general in the military, became the main voice of moderation within the government’s decision-making circles.

Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting to this article.

President Biden and the leaders of the other mediating countries, Egypt and Qatar, said last week that they were prepared to present a “final” proposal to end the war, and they called on Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table after weeks of an impasse in talks.

In a joint statement, Mr. Biden, along with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani of Qatar, declared that “the time has come” to conclude the deal for a cease-fire and the release of hostages abducted to Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel.

Israel will send its negotiating team to the meeting, which is expected to take place in Cairo or Doha, Qatar, “in order to finalize the details of the implementation of the framework agreement,” according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But with gaps on substantive issues remaining — and Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas officials trading blame for the failure to close them — there was little expectation that a deal could be concluded at Thursday’s meeting. It was unclear to what extent Hamas was willing to engage in the talks. In a statement on Sunday, the group said it objected to “more rounds of negotiations” and the introduction of any new proposals or conditions.

Major sticking points include Mr. Netanyahu’s demand for a mechanism to block armed militants from moving back into northern Gaza, though Israel left the wording vague and has not specified what kind of mechanism; and the lack of any agreement so far over which hostages and which Palestinian prisoners would be released in the first phase of the deal.

Against this backdrop, Israel was pressing ahead with its offensive in Gaza despite sharp international condemnation for a deadly strike on Saturday on a school compound where displaced Palestinians were sheltering.

The Israeli military issued a new evacuation order on Sunday for a neighborhood on the edge of a humanitarian zone, saying it was about to operate against armed groups in the area. It also said that its air force had struck about 30 Hamas targets throughout the Gaza Strip over the previous 24 hours, including military structures, an anti-tank missile launch post and weapons storage facilities.

Officials in Gaza said over the weekend that dozens of people had been killed in Israel’s strike on the school compound. The Israeli military disputed that account and defended the strike, saying it had carried out a precise operation and eliminated at least 19 militants who were using the compound as a command center.

The authorities in Gaza do not distinguish between combatants and civilians in reporting death tolls. In statements over the weekend, Hamas said that all those killed were civilians. None of the claims could be independently verified.

Israel’s political and military leaders have argued that it is essential to keep up the military pressure on Hamas, to force it to come to terms on a cease-fire deal.

Still, there was a sense of foreboding in Israel, which was preparing to observe the Jewish fast of Tisha B’Av, commemorating historic disasters that have befallen the Jewish people.

For the annual day of mourning, which starts at sunset on Monday and lasts through Tuesday, some rabbis have composed special prayers to mark the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which prompted the war in Gaza.

The fast, traditionally marking the destruction of two ancient Jewish temples in Jerusalem, could also stoke tensions around a contested holy site in the city that is revered by Muslims as the Aqsa Mosque and by Jews as the site of the temples.

Why has Iran vowed revenge?

Iran and Hamas officials have promised to avenge the death of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, who was killed in Tehran on July 31 after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran, which backs Hamas, blamed Israel for the assassination. Israeli leaders have not said their forces were responsible.

A day earlier, Fuad Shukr, a senior commander in Hezbollah, which is also supported by Iran, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in a suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut. The Israeli government said that strike was in retaliation for a rocket fired from Lebanon that struck a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing at least 12 people, mostly teenagers and children. Hezbollah has denied carrying out that attack.

But Mr. Haniyeh’s killing was seen as the greater blow to Tehran because it took place on Iranian soil. In response, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, according to three Iranian officials briefed on the matter.

Why hasn’t Iran responded yet?

A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaan, said that “it is necessary to punish Israel,” echoing comments from other senior Iranian officials. But he also said that “Tehran is not interested in escalating the regional conflicts.”

Furthermore, the new president’s cabinet, including the foreign minister, is yet to be approved, which is likely to have slowed internal deliberations, said Sanam Vakil, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, a research group in London.

At the same time, Mr. Pezeshkian, who is seen as a reformist, may try to balance a perceived need to project strength with his government’s broader interest in alleviating the effects of Western economic sanctions and in preventing Iran from becoming further isolated internationally, Ms. Vakil said.

“The response has to be carefully calibrated so as not to slam shut the door of negotiations with the West that could lead to potential sanctions relief,” Ms. Vakil said.

A military response that is viewed as largely symbolic is also risky from Tehran’s perspective, but it would be unlikely to deter Israel from conducting further attacks, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of Crisis Group, a think tank.

That leaves the option of a substantive response, but that would, in turn, likely provoke a bigger Israeli response — and Tehran would not be able to control the cycle of escalation that could follow, Mr. Vaez said.

“Israel has checkmated Iran in this situation because Iran is left with no good options,” said Mr. Vaez. He and Ms. Vakil both said that it is difficult to discern Iran’s intentions.

What could an Iranian response look like?

Iran could strike Israel from multiple directions and in different forms. Tehran maintains a network of proxy forces including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi militia in Yemen, giving it the ability to attack targets from northern Israel to the Red Sea.

In April, Tehran attacked Israel with around 300 missiles and drones, a response to an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy complex. Almost all were shot down by Israel’s air defenses assisted by the United States and other allies. It was the first direct attack by Iran after a clandestine war with Israel that had been conducted for years by land, sea, air and cyberspace and, as such, represented a significant escalation.

The attack in April caused light damage to an Israeli air base in the Negev desert and seriously wounded a 7-year-old girl. Now Israel is bracing for what could be a bigger attack.

How is Israel preparing?

The Israeli authorities have told people to stock food and water in fortified safe rooms, and hospitals have made plans to move patients to underground wards. At the same time, rescue teams have been positioned in cities.

U.S. and Israeli diplomats and security officials had some advanced knowledge of its scope and intensity of Iran’s attack in April, which facilitated defensive preparations. By the same token, the nearly two weeks that have passed since Mr. Haniyeh’s killing have allowed time for heightened readiness in Israel.

Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel was “prepared for defense, as well as offense.”

That said, military analysts say that Iran and Hezbollah could potentially overwhelm Israel’s defenses by firing enough missiles simultaneously. They could also launch swarms of drones that fly at low altitude, making them difficult to detect and destroy.

How are the United States and others responding?

Diplomats have feared for months that back-and-forth strikes between Israel and Iran could escalate into a regional conflict that would compound both the war in Gaza and the conflict on Israel’s border with Lebanon. As a result, they have worked to forestall or minimize Iran’s reaction.

The foreign minister of Jordan, an ally of the United States, has traveled to Tehran in recent days for meetings. Saudi Arabia last week convened an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, a forum of Muslim countries, at which it called the assassination of Mr. Haniyeh a violation of Iran’s sovereignty while urging de-escalation by all sides.

The United States has stepped up its military readiness. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III has ordered additional combat aircraft, warships and a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East in response to threats, both to bolster Israel’s capacity to thwart any potential attack and to reinforce the message that it would support the country militarily.

At the same time, the Biden administration has sought to jump-start cease-fire talks for Gaza. The Biden administration and Arab mediators are planning a meeting in the region on Thursday to try to advance a deal. Israel has said it will send its negotiators, but Hamas has not said if it will participate.