Middle East Crisis: Wider Mideast War Averted, for Now, but Tensions Continue

In negotiations for a truce in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu is pushing for a temporary break in hostilities that will theoretically allow Israel to continue to fight Hamas after a few weeks, thus placating his supporters who oppose ending the war before Hamas is completely destroyed. By contrast, Mr. Sinwar wants a permanent cease-fire that, even if it collapses in a few months, will give Hamas a greater chance of rebuilding its arsenal and retaining power in Gaza.

Without a deal in Gaza, Hezbollah has vowed to continue its strikes along the Israel-Lebanon border, where any sudden miscalculation or mistake still risks transforming a relatively restricted fight into a bigger conflict involving Iran, the benefactor of both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Thus far at least, finding a way to satisfy both men has seemed nearly impossible.

For now, both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back from the brink, a day after they exchanged some of the biggest salvos since the start of their 10-month cross-border battle. Israel’s defense minister spoke on Sunday of “the importance of avoiding regional escalation,” while Hezbollah’s leader said “people can take a breath and relax.”

Still, the fundamental dynamics of their fight, as well as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, are stuck. Hundreds of thousands of people in Israel and Lebanon remain displaced by the fighting. Millions of Palestinians in Gaza remain homeless, large parts of the territory stand in ruin, and tens of thousands have been killed. And Iran has yet to respond militarily to Israel’s assassination of a Hamas leader last month in Tehran.

“Strategically, the situation has not changed and we are where we were,” said Shira Efron, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.

“This in practice means continuous attritional war, with constant risk of escalation with no end in sight,” Ms. Efron said. “In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of Israelis and millions of Palestinians continue to suffer amidst a region teetering on the edge.”

A truce in Lebanon is dependent on a truce in Gaza, which remains a distant prospect given the contrasting goals of Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar. Four days of meetings between senior Israeli officials and U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo concluded on Sunday without a breakthrough, although negotiators said talks with less senior officials would continue.

Hezbollah has said it will continue its battle until Israel agrees to a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. And its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech on Sunday that the militia reserved the right to attack again to avenge Israel’s killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month.

Despite a renewed push by the United States and optimistic comments from Biden administration officials, the Gaza cease-fire talks appear to be at an impasse.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is still opposed to clauses in the proposed truce agreement that would make it harder for Israel to resume battle after a weekslong pause, arguing that such a deal would allow Hamas to survive the war intact.

Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition relies on lawmakers who have pledged to bring down his government if he agrees to such a deal, even as many Israelis publicly demand an agreement, saying it is the only way to free dozens of Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza.

Hamas, for its part, is determined to remain a force in postwar Gaza and has said it rejects any cease-fire that is temporary and does not ensure Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza. The group, along with Egypt, has pushed back strongly against Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence that Israel retain a military presence in a narrow strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which Israel has said is necessary to prevent Hamas from rearming through smuggling.

“Hamas is being asked to accept Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip, entirely or partly,” said Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a Palestinian research group in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

“Asking them to even consider such a condition is basically asking them to commit suicide, politically speaking,” Mr. Dalalsha added. “This is something Hamas would never, ever agree to.”

All eyes are now on Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar, in case either man has a change of heart, deciding that a deal would serve their interests, and agrees to a deal written with enough ambiguity to allow them to paper over their fundamental differences, at least temporarily.

In Israel, officials and analysts hoped that the averting of a regional war, and the clear decision by Hezbollah to moderate its actions on Sunday, might persuade Mr. Sinwar to soften his position.

Some Israelis believe that Mr. Sinwar has been trying to prolong the Gaza war long enough to ensure that Israel is dragged into a regional war across the Middle East. But Hezbollah’s decision to limit its attacks on Sunday suggested that it was unwilling to risk such an escalation because of the destruction it might bring to Lebanon.

Having understood that a regional war is now less likely, “maybe Sinwar will have greater appetite for a deal,” said Itamar Rabinovich, Israel’s former ambassador to Washington.

But others, like Mr. Dalalsha, believe that Mr. Sinwar may have been strengthened by Hezbollah’s strikes on Sunday, which showed that the Lebanese group is still willing to help its Gazan ally by forcing Israel to fight on two fronts at once.

“Hezbollah could have chosen to wait and not do anything,” Mr. Dalalsha said. Instead, the group gave “the sense to Hamas that they are not alone,” he added.

Either way, most analysts agree that both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar have little interest in giving ground. By agreeing to a temporary truce, Mr. Sinwar would endanger Hamas’s survival as a functioning force in Gaza.

And by allowing Hamas to survive, angering some of his political allies, Mr. Netanyahu would endanger his own political future.

“I don’t really see an end in sight,” said Mr. Dalalsha. Mr. Sinwar has “political interest in ending the war and on the other side you have an Israeli prime minister who has political interest in continuing the war.”

Julian E. Barnes and Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.

The Pentagon’s move comes even as Israel and Hezbollah appeared to de-escalate after firing rockets, missiles and drones at each other over the weekend, averting a wider Middle East war, at least for now. But General Ryder said the United States must take seriously vows by Iran to avenge the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, last month.

Israel’s military has not commented on the assassination. But Hamas and Iran have blamed Israel for the killing, and U.S. intelligence has assessed that Israel was behind it.

“We continue to assess that there is a threat of attack, and we remain well postured to be able to support Israel’s defense, as well as to protect our forces,” General Ryder said.

As part of a coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, chief of the general staff of the Israeli military, met with the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., during his visit to Israel this week, the Israeli military said in a statement.

The commanders discussed security, strategic issues and strengthening regional partnerships as part of the response to threats in the Middle East, the statement said.

Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting from Tel Aviv.

The ministry warned that inoculations alone could not be effective, amid a lack of clean water and personal hygiene supplies, and issues with sewage and waste collection in overcrowded areas where displaced families were sheltering. It said medical teams would need to spread out across the territory, “which requires an urgent cease-fire.”

The W.H.O. chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said in a statement on Thursday that a 10-month-old child in Gaza had contracted polio and become paralyzed in one leg. The virus had been found last month in wastewater samples, but this was the first confirmed case in Gaza in a quarter-century.

COGAT, the Israeli defense ministry’s agency that oversees policy for the Palestinian territories, said in a statement on Monday that the vaccines had been delivered to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom border crossing with Israel. The agency added that the campaign would be conducted in coordination with the Israeli military “as part of the routine humanitarian pauses” that it observes, which it said would allow Palestinians to reach vaccination centers.

In June, Israel announced that it would observe partial daily suspensions of its military activity in areas of Gaza, calling them humanitarian pauses, saying they were aimed at making it safer for humanitarian groups to deliver aid in the territory.

According to UNICEF, at least 95 percent of children will need to receive both doses of the vaccine to prevent the spread of the disease and reduce the risk of its re-emergence, “given the severely disrupted health, water and sanitation systems in the Gaza Strip.”

UNICEF and the W.H.O. in a statement called on “all parties to the conflict” to implement a weeklong humanitarian pause in Gaza to allow “children and families to safely reach health facilities” for the doses. The statement added that “without the humanitarian pauses, the delivery of the campaign will not be possible.”

Philippe Lazzarini, the director of UNRWA, said on Friday that the agency’s medical teams would distribute the vaccines at its clinics and through its mobile health teams. He added that “delaying a humanitarian pause will increase the risk of spread among children.”

Rawan Sheikh Ahmad contributed reporting.

Negotiators in Cairo were working to refine an American proposal presented last week in Doha, Qatar, aimed at bridging key gaps between the two sides. The so-called bridging proposal builds on an earlier framework outlined by President Biden in May, and includes various amendments aimed at resolving the differences between Hamas and Israel, people briefed on the talks have said.

Under the proposal, the first phase would see a six-week cease-fire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel. People displaced from northern Gaza would be able to return to their homes, many of which lie in ruins. During that time, Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza.

The second phase envisions a permanent cease-fire, while the third consists of a multiyear reconstruction plan for Gaza and the return of the remains of deceased hostages.

On Thursday, Israeli officials met with those from the United States and Egypt. On Friday, the U.S. and Egyptian teams held a bilateral consultation to strategize ahead of the talks.

Egyptian and Qatari negotiators then met with Hamas to walk through the bridging proposal paragraph by paragraph. The Hamas negotiators highlighted points of disagreement, which were brought to Egyptian, Qatari, American and Israeli negotiators on Sunday.

The technical level discussions are meant to continue this week in Cairo, with the aim of getting to an agreement that can be implemented.

American officials declined to outline the points of disagreement in detail, arguing that negotiating in public could only complicate matters.

But among the most difficult issues remaining, another American official said, is whether Israeli forces will remain on the Gaza side of the border with Egypt, and if so, how many. Israeli officials have reduced their demands in recent days, agreeing to accept a fewer number of checkpoints. But both Egypt and Hamas — which wants a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — have been skeptical of any Israeli military presence on Gaza’s southern border.