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SUNDAY AM: “This isn’t a box office marketplace problem, this is a creative development problem,” declared one movie marketing vet this weekend over Warner Bros‘ bold swing with a foul Joker: Folie à Deux, which at a production cost of $190M+ net is coming in way, way, way below forecasts at $39M, stepper than the $47M which was spotted by the town yesterday.
If anyone was betting on Joker: Folie à Deux as being a winning tentpole in their fantasy box office league a year out, well, sorry, you just lost a ton of cash. This sequel based on a DC Comics character is one of the lowest sequel openings in memory to a major franchise film based on a comic-book. It’s certainly lower than the start of Marvel Studios’ bomb last fall, The Marvels, and that was $46.1M. Interestingly enough, it’s not the lowest opening for a DC movie on record, that goes to the Josh Brolin western Jonah Hex with $5.3M. Clearly, no one wanted to see Joker 2 (though I know one person who did, who actually enjoyed it) especially when compared to the October record domestic start of the 2019 first film of $96.2M.
The only nice thing you can say about Joker: Folie à Deux‘s opening here when it comes to movie musicals, is that its stateside start is bigger than the entire domestic gross of Cats ($27.1M).
Friday was $20M (which includes previews) and Saturday dropped -45% to $11.1M as if Batman himself was throwing Joker off a building; not the -20% decline many were seeing, even outside Warners. Everyone was so serious about this movie being frontloaded, and indeed it was.
If there was ever a sign about the nervousness with this movie ahead of opening, it was in its stars Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga doing a very limited amount of press on the red carpet at the LA premiere. Not to mention, they arrived at the afterparty at the Sunset Tower last Monday, and got the hell out of there. No point in lingering if you know a hurricane is coming.
The failure of Joker: Folie à Deux is as clear as an azure sky of deepest summer: No fan of the original movie wanted to see a musical sequel, Mr. Phillips. Period.
There isn’t enough lipstick to put on this Joker to indicate that it’s any kind of a win: The original fans of this film — which let’s face it, are fan boys and men, because they bought tickets at 60% — kicked this clown to the street with a D CinemaScore and a half star on PostTrak. Anyone feeling Megalopolis deja vu from last weekend, you’re not imagining things. That movie received a D+ CinemaScore. The difference here of course is that Warners spent more marketing than Zoetrope and Lionsgate to get this Joaquin Phoenix-Lady Gaga sequel to some cultural global relevance.
No amount of clever marketing (not selling the pic as a musical; selling it as a Joker film) could save this.
We heard in recent weeks, Warner Bros pulled back on their P&A spend, and that some exhibitors, not all, felt this. There’s two schools of philosophies on this:
The biggest promotional cardinal sin of them all: Launching this sequel which didn’t have the goods at the Venice Film Festival. Why would any studio put a movie out there, particularly with the awful audience scores below, and let it sit on Rotten Tomatoes for a month with bad reviews? Sources tell me it was all part of Warner Bros. appeasing Phillips, which is why they allowed him to make this auteur-ish Stephen Sondheim-like feature in the first place. Between the Hangover franchise and Joker, Warner Bros. has reaped $2.5 billion off of Phillips’ fare at the box office. What do you do with a director whose done that much for you? Give him final cut.
However, that brings up a point. There are a couple of pricey auteur driven projects in the works at Warner Bros by Paul Thomas Anderson and Maggie Gyllenhaal. What happens if these filmmakers turn in non-commercial final cuts?
It’s not bad movies — it’s bad budgets as I’ve written before. And auteur cinema comes at a cost. Do you know how much Brady Corbet’s three-hour indie with an intermission post WWII The Brutalist cost, I hear? $6M.
Joker 2 was put into development by the previous Toby Emmerich administration and put into production by the current Michael De Luca-Pamela Abdy era at the Warner Bros. Motion Picture Studio. The movie isn’t part of the current DC Studios’ phase one Gods and Monsters. Joker 2 was greenlit before James Gunn and Peter Safran took control of the studio. Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav created a production flowchart ala Disney whereby specific brands are specifically handled by specific heads, and this was a crossover title not steered by the current DC administration, for the comic book features use to be steered by the major Warner Bros motion picture label.
Also compounding problems, I hear that Joker 2 wasn’t tested, which in turn provides a problem when trying to create a marketing strategy.
Which leads us to the production cost. Some say $200M, we believe it’s at $190M. By the way, that’s not the movie going overbudget. That’s what the movie was greenlit at, I understand. However, how the hell did a budget for a movie which doesn’t have jack-knife trailer truck stunt ala Dark Knight, and arguably little CGI, mushroom from its original’s cost of around $70M (and that had major co-financiers at the time in Village Roadshow and Bron, each taking 25% share) to $190M+? If the budget doubled to $140M, that’s one thing. But clearly who was minding the production ledger here during the David Zaslav job-cutting, cost-cutting, cash-flow-apalooza at Warner Bros. Discovery? Did the cost-cutting Zaslav spree wind up pinkslipping the proper accounting and business affairs execs who could have held this production cost at a lower level? Sources tell me that between Phillips, Gaga and Pheonix, they repped $50M of budget. Domain co-financed Joker 2 I hear to the tune of 25%.
Let’s not fault Warners and Phillips for breaking the boundaries of cinema. God bless ’em, they made the $168M Furiosa earlier this year which only yielded $173.3M global. No one wanted a Mad Max spinoff sans Charlize Theron, but damn, if that George Miller movie wasn’t the second coming of Sergio Leone stylistically. But if you’re gonna go crazy, and pretentiously title your film Folie a Deux, which also means in moviegoer language “stay away” — you’re gonna lose cash, and you’re gonna lose butts in seats. It’s not like the audiences’ movie tastes for a Joker here changed between pre-Covid and post-Covid.
More nice things to say in the middle of this maelstrom: for a Hollywood studio whose previous administration went theatrical-day-and-date on HBO Max during Covid with its feature slate, thus ticking off the town, let the record show that full creative and financial freedom was given here to a filmmaker to make the movie that he wanted.
The original Joker netted $437M in profit after its $1.1 billion at the box office, and a B+ CinemaScore.
Also keep this in mind in regards to budget spend to box office dollars. Joker 2 is opening in the range of other non-Disney live action musicals at the box office, read under Gaga’s October 2018 Oscar winning A Star Is Born ($42.9M) and above 2018’s Mamma Mia: Here We Again ($34.9M). Here’s what’s interesting about Joker 2: While moviegoers clearly didn’t want to see a musical version of the Taxi Driver-inspired 2019 movie, the sequel works best when it’s a Bonnie and Clyde-Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers lovey-dovey extravaganza. Joker 2 drags immensely when it’s a court drama. By comparison, Joker 2 makes Paul Newman’s 5x Oscar-nominated The Verdict look like Speed with Keanu Reeves. If Warners truly leaned into the musical aspect of the movie, put the pedal to the metal in attracting women, and at a lower cost — who knows, perhaps the cost-revenue ratio would be different. I’m told that if Warners sat on Joker 2 and skipped Venice, unveiling fully earlier this week, we could be possibly looking at another $10M in its stateside ticket sales.
More under the hood of Joker 2: Men over 25 attended the most at 41% with a 40% grade, followed by females over 25 with a 46% grade, men under 25 at 19% with a 34% grade, and women under 25 at 16% with a 45% grade. Sixty-three percent of the audience was 18-34. The diversity turnout was 43% Caucasian, 27% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black, 17% Asian & 5% NatAm/Other. Imax and PLFs repped 41% of the weekend’s ticket sales so far. Best markets in East, Central and West with AMC Lincoln Square in NYC the pic’s highest grossing location at $150k through Saturday night.
Forty-three percent went to Joker 2 because of Phoenix, 39% went because of Gaga, 39% also went because it was part of a franchise they love, 23% said it looked fun and entertaining, while only 7% –not that many– heard it was “good.”
The fear nowadays in some executive corridors is that the headlines for a tentpole that’s bombed is some nefarious harbinger for the end of theatrical, particularly after it’s been rattled by Covid and dual strikes.
Um, no, think again.
People are still interested in going to the movies, evident in how the industry reduced this year’s deficit vs. the 2023 B.O. from -20% at the start of summer to a current -11%. You think R-rated comic book movies don’t work? Look at what Deadpool & Wolverine did at $1.3 billion worldwide, unseating 2019’s Joker ($1.1B) to become the highest grossing R-rated movie of all-time.
What now? Well, the character of Joker in any form needs to go quiet for a while before he dances again on the big screen.
****
This all brings us to Lionsgate’s White Bird which is the prequel and sequel to the studio’s $315M 2017 hit family movie Wonder. White Bird with a 3-day of $1.53M for the weekend, is hopefully the final nail in Lionsgate’s six film misfire streak which began with Borderlands back in August. The pic was made cheap for $20M, largely funded by foreign sales with a $15M P&A. Here’s the thing: the exit scores on this feature take of the R.J. Palacio novel are excellent with an A+ and 5 stars on PostTrak. Some solid numbers for this 1,018 wide release in NYC, Florida, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Orlando and Dallas, but not much else going on? Wha happened? Missed opportunity? I hear this Helen Mirren led-WWII Holocaust themed movie was a challenge for Lionsgate to market, evident in its dating and undating on the release date change calendar. White Bird was originally dated for Sept. 16, 2022. Why did the movie get made? The original starring Julia Roberts and Owen Wilson was greenlit by the Rob Friedman and Patrick Wachsberger administration. The incoming Joe Drake one wanted to capitalize on the heat of the franchise. However, clearly with exits like these, there wasn’t an effort to connect with Wonder fans (the first book counting 16M copies sold) and energize them about White Bird. Again, completely different film. Lionsgate will lose some from this. Light candles and say prayers for better grosses on their holiday faith-based entry, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, which comes out on Nov. 8.
YouTubers at the box office: Sam and Colby: The Legends of Paranormal is booked 302 locations, all Cinemark locations, with great numbers I hear in LA, Chicago, San Antonio, Kansas City, LA and Salt Lake City. The pic made $586K on Friday and is eying $1.77M for the weekend — a near $4K per theater which is higher than White Bird’s $1,4K. Pic’s blurb: Paranormal investigators Sam and Colby have hunted ghosts at the world’s most iconic haunted locations. Now they set out to investigate a mysterious desert ranch famous for ghosts, UFOs, and terrifying monsters lurking in the dark.
Mel Gibson and Lorraine Bracco have the family movie Monster Summer booked at 1193 theaters with a $203K Friday and $614K 3-day. Logline: When a mysterious force begins to disrupt their big summer fun, Noah and his friends team up with a retired police detective to embark on a monstrous adventure to save their island. Thirteen critics didn’t get it at 54% on RT. $515 per theater average.
Sony’s expansion of Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night which went from five NYC, LA and Toronto theaters to 21 sites made $102K on Friday, $98K yesterday and is eyeing $80K today for a $280K second weekend and $13,3K theater average for a running total by Sunday EOD of $638K. Pic is chiefly making its dough in NYC and LA.
The weekend box office was suppose to hit $100M for all movies based on Joker 2‘s projections yesterday. Now the marketplace is down to $91.2M which is -3% from last weekend, and a 25% surge over the same frame a year ago.
The chart is updating with Sunday figures. Updated figures indicated by broken out Saturday and Sunday:
1.) Joker: Folie à Deux (WB) 4,102 theaters, Fri $20M, Sat $11.1M 3-day $39M/Wk 1
FRIDAY PM: As of this minute, Todd Phillips’ audacious Joker: Folie à Deux is looking at an OK Friday of $20M, including last night’s $7M, and hoping to stay above $50M but could sink to $45M at 4,102 theaters. Numbers-wise, even though it was a PG-13 movie, this looks far too similar to The Marvels, which posted $6.6M previews, a $21.6M first day and disastrous 3-day of $46.1M. That movie actually was more expensive than Joker 2, $270M to $190M. The fear is that the bad word-of-mouth on this movie will make it increasingly frontloaded with a freefall on Saturday.
RelishMix noticed good social media metrics with the pic’s follower reach at 567.3M across TikTok, YouTube, X, Instagram and Facebook, which is 7% above superhero genre norms before opening. Lady Gaga’s fans across all platforms clocked 231.3M fans with 43.7M views feeding into her Instagram. However, the bad buzz post-Venice, where the movie clocked 62% fresh with critics on RT, seeped into presales, which were heard were not amazing ahead of opening.
Elsewhere, Universal’s DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot at 3,997 venues is seeing a second Friday of $4.9M and a second weekend of $19.5M, -46%, for a 10-day of $64.7M.
Warner Bros. has better luck this weekend with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice at 3,576 sites, which will continue to hold in Weekend 5 at -30%. It’s posting a 3-day of $11.4M after a near-$3M Friday for a running total by Sunday of $266.5M, still the second-highest-grossing movie of September behind 2017’s It ($327.4M).
Fourth belongs to Paramount’s Transformers One at 3,106 locations with a third Friday of $1.35M, third weekend of $5.5M, -40% and a running total of $47.4M.
Fifth is Universal/Blumhouse’s fourth weekend of Speak No Evil at 2,274 sites, with $900K today, a 3-day of $3M, -30% for a running total of $32.7M.
Outside the top 5 is Lionsgate’s misfire White Bird with $650K today, and $1.5M-$2M opening for the weekend.
FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros’ Todd Phillips-directed sequel Joker: Folie à Deux earned $7M in previews that began at 3 p.m. Thursday. The number indicates that the $190M+ movie could get to a $50M opening, particularly when comped against movies that exceeded that threshold in their starts such as Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part One ($7M last year), No Time to Die ($6.3M in 2021) and John Wick: Chapter 3: Parabellum ($5.9M in 2019).
Forget about the fact that Joker 2‘s previews are off by 47% from the first 2019 film’s $13.3M, which mushroomed to a $39.3M Friday and the biggest October domestic opening of all time with $96.2M. We knew that was going to happen.
What’s not funny is the Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience exits for Joker 2, which tell a different story.
While many knew this Joaquin Phoenix-Lady Gaga combo would be challenged due to the fact that it’s a musical, the fanboys full-out rejected the sequel last night on PostTrak with a 1/2 star and 40% positive. Holy guacamole, Batman. Did the Megalopolis cynics show up last night? Because that’s the same Thursday night grade (actually 45% positive) that the Francis Ford Coppola-directed $120M dystopian epic received a week ago before inching up to one star on PostTrak. Or, wait, did PostTrak switch up the reports? Lionsgate’s Helen Mirren movie White Bird received five stars last night! That feature take on R.J. Palacio’s novel, which is a sequel and prequel to Wonder, is only expected to make $2M this weekend on 1,018 theaters after a $275K Thursday night. Reviews for the movie stand at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes.
A very low 24% say they’ll definitely recommend Joker 2 to their friends. God knows what this means for the sequel’s stability throughout the weekend. RT audience score for Joker 2 also is in the gutter at 36%, with critical reviews plummeting from 62% fresh to 39% Rotten.
BTW, CinemaScore exits usually are more gentle than PostTrak, but God knows where that will be. Megalopolis received a D+ last weekend. Also, Joker 2‘s previews are $400K higher than the $6.6M The Marvels, which fell apart with a $46.1M opening last November — the lowest ever for a Marvel Studios Disney title.
Rest of the week was as follows:
1.) The Wild Robot (Uni) 3,962 theaters, Thu $2M (+9% from Wednesday), Wk $45M/Wk 1
2.) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (WB) 3,804 theaters, Thu $972K (-12%), Wk $20.9M, Total $255M/Wk 4
3.) Transformers One (Par) 3,970 (-8) theaters, Thu $602k (-1%), Wk $11.9M, Total $41.7M/Wk 2
4.) Speak No Evil (Uni) 2,971 (-704) theaters, Thu $287K (-28%), Wk $5.9M, Total $29.7M/Wk 3
5.) Devara Part 1 (Prath) 1,040 theaters, Thu $78K (-40%), Wk $5.57M/Wk 1
6.) Megalopolis (LG) 1,854 theaters, Thu $233K (-34%), Wk $5.4M/Wk 1
