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SATURDAY AM: Thank, God, for Snow White next weekend, right? Who knew with that movie’s controversy we’d be saying that!? However, the industry should be thankful. If Snow White pulls off a $50M+ opening, that’s a respectable bump for what is a barren desert of a business right now. Current estimates show that this weekend is in fact the lowest YTD with around $52M for all films; that’s lower than Super Bowl Weekend. How is that possible during a spring break with kids off?
In fact, Snow White could have moved up to this weekend. Instead, we have a weekend of what appears to be counterprogramming with five wide entries. And no matter what their exits are here, it’s very hard to get people to go to the movies (even if it’s a novel movie) when there isn’t a momentum to go. As such, the B Cinemascore, 84% positive, 58% definite recommend Paramount movie, Novocaine, is leading with $8.5M opening after a $3.9M Friday/previews. By technicality, and finding a good date on the calendar, it gives both Paramount and Jack Quaid in arguably his first studio leading man role, a No. 1 debut.
But, let’s come back to that point: Five news movies are on the marquee. Exhibition screams at studios for more product because they need it. But clearly, it’s a matter of quality over quantity. Better to have one big tentpole that a studio spent on then a handful of films that they didn’t. I’m told by Paramount and Focus Features, which has the high gloss Steven Soderbergh movie Black Bag, which is performing to the bottom of its expectations of $7M, that they committed marketing spend to the $50M production. All, I have to say, is that everyone knows their own numbers, and knows whether they’re slashing costs so that they’re not throwing good money after bad. But if theatrical is being used as just an advertising vehicle to get to the home window, well, shame on you. These bad habits will kill the business. Straighten up and fly right.
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FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Wait, wasn’t the impact from the strikes last year?
If 2025 is going to be known for anything, it’s which weekend is the lowest at the box office. With Paramount’s new wide entry Novocaine and Warner Bros’ holdover Mickey 17 doing about $8M each (many believe the Jack Quaid movie has the edge), this weekend could go down as indeed the lowest, bottoming under the Super Bowl weekend February 7-9 frame with $55.8M, per Comscore.
So far there have been three weekends in 2025 where all movies grossed under $57M. And get this: We’re already in spring break! Comscore says a third of all colleges are on break today with 24% K-12 schools off, those numbers holding firm to Monday. This is just awful for the entire industry.
The ray of sunshine is that Novocaine‘s exits are solid. The movie did well in the late-night showtimes, so hopefully there’s some spring later tonight. It’s booked at 3,365 locations. The 10-day right now on Mickey 17 is $33.7M; the pic’s second frame is -57% at 3,807 sites.
Third place goes to Focus Features’ Steven Soderbergh pic Black Bag, which is seeing a $2.5M Friday and 3-day of $6M at 2,705 theaters. It’s a word-of-mouth movie, I’m told. Conclave, by comparison, opened to $6.6M in 1,753 theater and played to a near 5x multiple. That’s hope here for the Michael Fassbender-Cate Blanchett spy pic.
The rest, may they not rest in peace, are as follows:
4.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 3,250 theaters, Fri $1.5M, 3-day $5.3M (-37%), Total $185.2M/Wk 5
5.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 2,489 theaters, $800K, 3-day $2.9M (-22%), Total $41.4M/Wk 5
6.) The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie (Ketchup) 2,827 theaters, Fri $750K, 3-day $2.15M/Wk 1
7.) The Last Supper (Pinnacle Peak Pictures) 1,575 theaters, Fri $725K, 3-day $2M/Wk 1
What’s Last Supper? Here’s the trailer:
8.) Opus (A24) 1,764 theaters, $600K, 3-day $1.5M/Wk 1
The John Malkovich-Ayo Edebiri movie grossed $150K in previews Thursday night.
FRIDAY AM: Paramount’s Novocaine made $1.75 million in previews — a total that includes Thursday night and advance screenings from last weekend.
The R-rated action comedy might lead the box office this weekend with anywhere from $8M-$12M, potentially unseating Warner Bros’ $118M Bong Joon Ho sci-fi movie Mickey 17, which is expected to fall 55%-60% with $9M-$10M. PostTrak audiences gave Novocaine 4½ stars and a 59% definite recommend last night — exits any studio has to take seriously. The 18-34 crowd showed up at 79%.
Novocaine was a negative pickup that cost Paramount around $18M, which is the cost of the movie.
Mickey 17 ends the week with $25.8M, with $1.2M day, off 17% from Thursday. The biggest weekday for the Robert Pattinson movie was Tuesday with $2.5M. Mickey 17 will have PLFs and Imax this weekend.
Novocaine, which stars The Boys’ Jack Quaid, Amber Midthunder and Veep‘s Matt Walsh, follows a guy incapable of feeling physical pain who turns his rare condition into an unexpected advantage in the fight to rescue the girl of his dreams when she is kidnapped.
There’s another Steven Soderbergh movie on the marquee, and that’s Focus Features’ $50M spy movie Black Bag with Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender, which collected $850,000 from Thursday previews and early-access screenings at 2,250 locations. Critics love it at 97% certified fresh, and the RT audience score is at 79%. However, the movie is expected to do in the high-single-digits as it’s aimed at older adults; the over-35 set repped 52% of the audience last night in PostTrak exits. Written by David Koepp, Black Bag follows intelligence agents George Woodhouse and his beloved wife Kathryn. When she is suspected of betraying the nation, George faces the ultimate test: loyalty to his marriage or his country.
Black Bag‘s previews are less than the $1M racked up by Focus Features’ most recent adult thriller, Last Breath, which went on to open to $7.8M over the February 28-March 2 weekend.
Falling Forward Films and Ketchup Entertainment have the Warner Bros Animation movie they rescued — not Coyote vs. Acme but Looney Tunes: The Day the Earth Blew Up. It’s booked at 2,827 theaters and expected to do in the single digits. Thursday night previews made $250K.
A24 has its Midsommar-like horror comedy Opus booked at 1,700 theaters. Starring John Malkovich, Ayo Edebiri and Juliette Lewis , it’s expected to do in the low single digits. The feature directorial debut of former GQ editor Mark Anthony Green follows a young journalist (Edebiri), who is invited along with her boss to the desert compound of a reclusive aging rock star legend (Malkovich), who lives with this cult. Chaos ensues. Critics didn’t like it at 39% Rotten, but I did. Opus cost less than $10M in net production cost before P&A.
Says tracking service Quorum about this weekend of many wide entries, some of which might not crack $10M: “You have to give Paramount credit for supporting Novocaine with a spot during the Super Bowl, among other things. Sadly, tracking has been muted, with neither awareness nor interest reaching 40%. Black Bag has reached 40% interest; however, far fewer people know it exists. Awareness is only at 27%. Also, opening this weekend is Opus, which stalled at 16% awareness. It’s hard to generate a big opening when few people know the film exists.”
