Paul Merson verdict on Newcastle United moving forward

1 month ago 14

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Paul Merson speaking as Eddie Howe’s team are set to play at St James’ Park once again.

The latest very tedious international break out of the way.

Having so far picked up twelve points from a possible twenty one, as well as progress through two rounds of the Carabao Cup.

On Saturday, Newcastle United are home to Brighton.

The former Arsenal player speaking, with now Eddie Howe approaching his eighth Premier League start of the season with Newcastle United.

Paul Merson discussing the possibilities for Newcastle United in this match at St James’ Park and indeed for the overall season ahead.

Paul Merson talking to Sportskeeda ahead of Newcastle United v Brighton:

“This will be a really good game.

“Brighton and Newcastle are sixth and seventh, respectively on same points.

“But quite honestly, Brighton are playing way better at the moment.

“I expect both teams to have a go at it and there will be plenty of goals in this one.

“It’s so hard to keep it tight at the back and score many goals, difficult job and very few teams in the world are consistently good at it.

“I’m certain Newcastle will be a force going forward in this game, but I also feel they will leave the back door open in the process. This is where Brighton can take advantage and punish their opponents.

“As things stand, I’d probably go for Newcastle to finish above Brighton. It’s only just though, there’s not much between these teams.

“Prediction: Newcastle 2 Brighton 2.”

So is Paul Merson on the money here?

Well I certainly hope he is proved correct that Newcastle United will end the season above Brighton, as that could be a pretty good yardstick for the 2024/25 campaign.

As for Saturday’s match and what Paul Merson has said, I think it is worth looking back at what he said and predicted for our last PL home game, against Man City:

“Pep Guardiola and company should be fairly comfortable here, though.

“I predict an easy win with a clean sheet.

“Prediction: Newcastle United 0 Manchester City 3”

Paul Merson having a fancy for Newcastle United conceding a lot of goals at home, or indeed generally. The reality is that in four matches (all competitions) at St James’ Park this season, Newcastle have conceded only two goals in over six hours of football. Whilst in four of the five away matches (all competitions), Newcastle only conceding three goals in four of them, with the odd one out this season having been the 3-1 away at Fulham.

It is actually Brighton who are scoring goals but leaving the back door open this season. There have been 23 goals in their seven Premier League matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10, whilst Newcastle only 15 goals in their seven PL games, scoring eight and conceding seven.

I want though to concentrate in particular on Newcastle United playing at home in the Premier League with Nick Pope in goal.

In the 28 months he has been at NUFC, these are all the Premier League games at St James’ Park that Nick Pope has started, where he has conceded more than one goal in a match:

21 August 2022 – Newcastle 3 Man City 3

18 February 2022 – Newcastle 0 Liverpool 2

7 May 2023 – Newcastle 0 Arsenal 2

27 August 2023 – Newcastle 1 Liverpool 2

That is it.

Nick Pope has started 30 Premier League matches for Newcastle United at St James’ Park and only in four of the 30 has he conceded more than one goal.

Nick Pope overall St James’ Park Premier League record reads:

Played 30 Won 20 Drawn 7 Lost 3 Goals For 59 Goals Against 20

Son on average, Nick Pope concedes two goals across every three PL matches. So when you add injury time, you are talking roughly, Pope conceding a PL goal every two and a half hours when playing at SJP.

Yet Paul Merson predicting that against Man City and Brighton, that Nick Pope would be conceding five goals across only three hours or so.

Obviously anything is possible BUT when you have almost two and a half years of stats with Nick Pope and indeed Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United generally these past three years, then the incredible home form has to be taken seriously.

With Alexander Isak widely reported as set to be back on Saturday AND with Nick Pope at the other end, plenty of room for optimism that Newcastle can succeed at both ends of the pitch against Brighton.

Newcastle United upcoming matches confirmed to end of January 2025:

Saturday 19 October – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Sunday 27 October – Chelsea v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 30 October – Newcastle v Chelsea (7.45pm) Sky Sports+

Saturday 2 November – Newcastle v Arsenal (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Monday 25 November – Newcastle v West Ham (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 30 November – Crystal Palace v Newcastle

Wednesday 4 December – Newcastle v Liverpool (7.30pm) Amazon

Saturday 7 December – Brentford v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 14 December – Newcastle v Leicester (3pm)

Saturday 21 December – Ipswich v Newcastle (3pm)