‘Prediction markets’ set to pay out $450M to election bettors

In Brief

Following Donald Trump’s election victory, thousands of bettors now anticipate a potential $450 million payout from online betting sites, says Reuters. As Trump’s odds surged on so-called prediction markets near the end of the race, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gained attention for diverging sharply from traditional polls, which suggested a much closer race. 

Talking with the outlet, a Princeton neuroscience professor credited the markets’ ability to “measure crowd wisdom where no hard data is available.”

Backers in Kalshi, a venture-backed exchange that invites people to bet on the outcomes of cultural events, plainly saw what was coming. As TechCrunch reported last week, its investors loaned the outfit tens of millions of dollars in short-term loans to pay its customers.

Their individual winnings may pale in comparison to a Polymarket bettor known as the “Polymarket whale.” As Reuters notes, the whale — a French former trader — made $40 million worth of Trump-related bets on the site. If Trump is determined the winner of the popular vote, he’ll reportedly walk away with $80 million.

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