Ripple’s (XRP) 2024 Breakthrough Possible If SEC's Grip Loosens After This Investigation

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February proved to be a stellar month for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), reminiscent of their impressive runs in 2020 and 2022, respectively. BTC soared to an exhilarating $64,000, only to experience a slight pullback, while ETH crossed the $3,400 threshold. Experts attributed the recent rally to the supply-demand dynamics, amplified by the inflow of over $2 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, and the anticipation of Bitcoin's halving event in April.

However, lurking in the backdrop of this market optimism are crucial dates in Ripple's (XRP) legal battle with the SEC, the outcome of which can set a precedent impacting other digital assets. As XRP inches closer to its 2024 high, despite the lawsuits, the market eagerly awaits the court's ruling on the SEC's request and the impending class action lawsuit trial set for April 15, 2024. This air of expectancy around Ripple's (XRP) legal challenges adds a layer of intrigue to the market's buoyant state.

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Both the SEC and Ripple (XRP) are preparing remedy-related briefs with a deadline of March 13, potentially extended to March 22. The SEC is currently dealing with the ripple effects of the 2023 ruling on Programmatic Sales of XRP, where Judge Analisa Torres concluded that these sales didn't meet the Howey Test's criteria. Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) braces for the Oakland civil class action lawsuit trial, scheduled for April 15, 2024. Attorney Fred Rispoli suggests that the judgment in this case can have a direct impact on the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit.

The outcome of the SEC's appeal concerning the Programmatic Sales ruling can affect XRP's market standing in the USA, while its consideration of punitive disgorgement will possibly deter other crypto entities from challenging its authority. However, the Office of Inspector General's ongoing investigation into alleged internal conflicts of interest can hinder the SEC's maneuvers. If the OIG weakens the SEC's tough regulatory stance, Ripple (XRP) stands a great chance of winning as the watchdog will likely halt its plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. This will allow Ripple to target the U.S. market more aggressively and will open doors for ETF issuers to explore XRP-spot ETFs.

Market dynamics are closely tied to these legal events as seen in Ripple's (XRP) price sensitivity to related news and developments. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's guarded comments on potential BlackRock involvement with XRP-spot ETFs have sparked investor interest. This situation mirrors the spike in Ripple's (XRP) value following rumors of a BlackRock iShares XRP Trust in November.

As the SEC vs. Ripple (XRP) case approaches a discovery phase, it remains at the center of investor attention, along with other key legal battles like the SEC vs. Coinbase. The outcome of Coinbase's Motion to Dismiss, buoyed by senators like Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand who advocate for clearer and more balanced crypto regulation, could further shape the regulatory landscape and the viability of an XRP-spot ETF market.

Currently, Ripple (XRP) is trading between its first support level at $0.5087 and its first resistance level at $0.6449.

Source: TradingView

The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) provide a nuanced view: the 10-day EMA at $0.568 and the 50-day EMA at $0.5542 are both closely aligned below the current price, suggesting a recent uptrend, while the 200-day EMA at $0.56 hovers around the same range, indicating some stability in the longer term.

The Stochastic %K at a low 16.71 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) also at 16.71 suggest a lack of strong momentum in either direction, implying a phase of consolidation or indecision in the market.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65.14 leans towards the higher end, hinting at potential overbought conditions, which could lead to a price correction.

The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 158.78 points to a recent bullish trend, while the MACD Level at 0.011 and Momentum at 0.029 reinforce this positive outlook, albeit with caution due to the potentially overbought conditions indicated by the RSI.

Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast

Looking at the possible future trajectories for XRP, the bullish scenario would involve breaking past $0.6449 and aiming for the next levels at $0.7036 and $0.8399, fueled by favorable legal outcomes or broader market trends.

On the flip side, a bearish turn could see Ripple (XRP) retracting to test $0.5087, followed by the lower lines of defense at $0.4311 and $0.2948. A bearish trend could be triggered by negative news or a broader market downturn, and the proximity of the EMA values suggests that any downward movement could be swift and decisive.

Currently, Ripple (XRP) is involved in two regulatory tussles, the outcome of which is eagerly anticipated, not just for its impact on XRP but for the precedents it may set for the entire crypto market. With crucial dates approaching for its legal battle with the SEC and the Oakland civil class action lawsuit, Ripple's (XRP) fate hangs in the balance. XRP's current trading position, hovering around $0.6, reflects a market that is cautiously optimistic yet braced for volatility, depending on the forthcoming legal decisions and their ripple effects across the crypto landscape.

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