Sky Sports expert chasing his Newcastle United losses

1 month ago 17

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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game against Brighton.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Brighton game.

“With Lewis Dunk and Jean Paul van Hecke set to be reunited at the heart of the Brighton defence, the way that this defensive unit will function should be hugely improved from games in which they conceded a combined six goals against Chelsea and Tottenham.

“Those two have been paired together five times this season and Brighton are unbeaten, conceding just four goals.

“The cohesion, chemistry and understanding between Dunk and Van Hecke allows Brighton to play their high-line very effectively, restricting opponents from sustaining attacks on their goal.

“That partnership looks key to Brighton, and with doubts still lingering about whether Newcastle are truly moving forward under Eddie Howe, this looks the time to take advantage of some fancy prices for an away win. There is 12/5 with Sky Bet available – a price to take very seriously.

“Prediction: Newcastle 1 Brighton 2”

Always interesting to hear what the Sky Sports expert has to say with his analysis on Newcastle United matches and some good stuff there.

However… the Sky Sports expert does pick and chooses his stats though, indeed picks and chooses what to recall of what he has confidently predicted before.

He has gone for Brighton to win 2-1 today but this is what the Sky Sports man predicted before Newcastle’s last two Newcastle United Premier League home matches…

The Sky Sports expert confidently predicted an easy 3-1 win for Tottenham at St James’ Park.

Next time at SJP, he then reckoned Man City would also be easy 3-1 winners on Tyneside.

Then in the most recent game, the Sky Sports man reckoned Everton would be 2-1 winners over Newcastle United.

The Sky Sports expert has the air of somebody who is very much chasing his Newcastle United losses and is desperate to be eventually proved correct and win those losses back!

I want to concentrate in particular on Newcastle United playing at home in the Premier League with Nick Pope in goal.

In the 28 months he has been at NUFC, these are all the Premier League games at St James’ Park that Nick Pope has started, where he has conceded more than one goal in a match:

21 August 2022 – Newcastle 3 Man City 3

18 February 2022 – Newcastle 0 Liverpool 2

7 May 2023 – Newcastle 0 Arsenal 2

27 August 2023 – Newcastle 1 Liverpool 2

That is it. Nick Pope has started 30 Premier League matches for Newcastle United at St James’ Park and only in four of the 30 has he conceded more than one goal.

Nick Pope overall St James’ Park Premier League record reads:

Played 30 Won 20 Drawn 7 Lost 3 Goals For 59 Goals Against 20

So on average, Nick Pope concedes two goals across every three PL matches. So when you add injury time, you are talking roughly, Pope conceding a PL goal every two and a half hours when playing at SJP.

You then have the fact that in all of the competitive matches that Newcastle United have played in all competitions, home and away, these past five and a half months, they have conceded more than one goal on just the single occasion, that big off day at Fulham. Well basically the very poor first half killed us.

I would also like to give a bit of background to where the Sky Sports expert massively hypes the defensive partnership of Lewis Dunk and Jean Paul van Hecke.

I am sure they are decent defenders BUT these are the five matches where they conceded four goals across the five games.

A 0-0 draw at home to Ipswich, a fortunate 2-2 draw at home to Forest who finished with 10 men, a 2-1 home victory over a very poor Man U side, Brighton scoring the winner in the fifth minute of added time.

The other two games having been a 3-0 win at Everton, plus a 1-1 at Arsenal BUT the Gunners cruising at 1-0 up until that Declan Rice sending off, meant Brighton had a man advantage for half the match.

This won’t be an easy game BUT every reason to have confidence that Newcastle United can prove the Sky Sports expert wrong yet again.

Newcastle United upcoming matches confirmed to end of January 2025:

Saturday 19 October – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Sunday 27 October – Chelsea v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 30 October – Newcastle v Chelsea (7.45pm) Sky Sports+

Saturday 2 November – Newcastle v Arsenal (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Monday 25 November – Newcastle v West Ham (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 30 November – Crystal Palace v Newcastle

Wednesday 4 December – Newcastle v Liverpool (7.30pm) Amazon

Saturday 7 December – Brentford v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 14 December – Newcastle v Leicester (3pm)