Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Interesting on Newcastle United ahead of Bournemouth match

2 months ago 26

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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Bournemouth.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Bournemouth v Newcastle game.

“The markets don’t give enough respect to Bournemouth.

“Yes, the sale of Dominic Solanke will make their life more problematic in front of goal but as a unit, Andoni Iraola has built one of the most organised defensive outfits in the Premier League.

“Since beating Newcastle 2-0 in November, their expected goals against per 90 record at home of just 1.04 is the fourth best home record of any team.

“They are such a difficult team to create quality chances against – mostly down to their exceptional work without the ball.

“Newcastle still have questions to answer regarding the expectation that without the extra fixtures they can return to the levels we saw in the 22/23 season.

“They dug-in against Saints last weekend with 10-men but did struggle to find any rhythm even before the sending off, so I’d be lukewarm about their chances of taking three points against a very difficult team to break down.

“The 2/1 with Sky Bet on a home win looks more than fair and the 8/11 for the Cherries to avoid defeat is one of the best bets on the card.

“Prediction: Bournemouth 1 Newcastle 0”

Always interesting to hear what the Sky Sports expert has to say with his analysis on Newcastle United matches and some good stuff there.

However, when you are using statistics, past form and so on like he does, there are ALSO other stats and past form that he chooses to ignore, as they don’t back up what he is claiming to be the most likely outcome of this match.

The Sky Sports expert’s rave review of Bournemouth, fails to mention that they have only won two of their last nine Premier League games and in the other seven they have conceded 15 goals, losing five and drawing two.

Predicting NUFC failing to score, since Christmas 2023, in the last 21 Premier League matches only once have Newcastle United failed to score.

Whilst in their last 11 Premier League games, Newcastle have won seven of them and lost only two.

Also worth mentioning that since November 2017, almost seven years ago, Bournemouth have won only one of ten matches (all competitions) against Newcastle United. That was indeed the game last November that the Sky Sports man mentions BUT the Cherries absolutely caught NUFC at absolutely the right time, down to the bare bones with so many players missing and those available on their last legs after a sustained constant period of so many matches and in the previous seven days having defeated Arsenal and then in midweek lost in Dortmund.

Bournemouth will be a tough match but Solanke was so important to how they played AND scored goals.

The Sky Sports expert mentions still to be convinced about Newcastle’s defending but last weekend was outstanding in that respect with just 10 men for 73 minutes against Southampton. Joelinton missed so much of last season and played at times when not fully fit, he was immense last weekend, all over the pitch, including/especially protecting the back four.

Whilst behind that back four, Nick Pope was such a reassurance. Having conceded the lowest number of goals in the Premier League in 2022/23, Pope then conceded only 16 in 15 PL starts last season, whilst without him Newcastle conceded 46 in the other 23 PL games.

If I was putting money on a goalkeeper keeping a clean sheet in Sunday’s match, it would be Nick Pope.

Newcastle United schedule to end of October 2024:

Sunday 25 August 2024 – Bournemouth v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 28 August 2024 – Forest v Newcastle in Carabao Cup (8pm) Sky Sports

Friday 30 August 2024 – Summer transfer window closes at 11pm.

Sunday 1 September 2024 – Newcastle v Tottenham (1.30pm) Sky Sports

(The first international break of the season)

Sunday 15 September 2024 – Wolves v Newcastle (4.30 pm) Sky Sports

Weeks commencing Monday 16 September AND Monday 23 September – Carabao Cup round three (This round split over two midweeks)

Saturday 21 September 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3 pm)

Weeks commencing Monday 16 September AND Monday 23 September – Carabao Cup round three (This round split over two midweeks)

Saturday 28 September 2024 – Newcastle v Man City (12.30 pm) TNT Sports