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6 months ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at St James’ Park against Brighton.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Brighton game.
“Newcastle are a force at St James’ Park, scoring in all 18 home games this season and winning 11 of the last 16 Premier League games in front of their home fans.
“But you’d need to be a braver punter than me to be taking 4/7 with Sky Bet on a home win, especially when you factor in how impressive Brighton were when dispatching Aston Villa last weekend.
“They restricted Unai Emery’s team to just two shots and created a whopping expected goals figure of 2.53.
“It was their first win in seven games and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them back up that level of performance. The 11/4 on Brighton draw no bet is worth an interest.
“Score prediction: Newcastle 2 Brighton 1”
I really like what the Sky Sports expert does with his analysis week after week on Newcastle United matches.
However…
I think he is way off the mark this time.
As all football fans know any result can happen in any match, but seen as the Sky Sports expert bases his predictions on form and statistics, to suggest Brighton as likely winners today, doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.
Of course Newcastle United aren’t really backable just to win the game at odds on, however, putting forward the Seagulls to do so, is based on the flimsiest of form and stats.
That win against Villa is really all the Sky Sports man is relying on, which is a bit feeble really, considering Villa didn’t really turn up last Sunday, having been totally demoralised with their 4-2 home loss less than 72 hours earlier to Olympiakos.
Brighton hadn’t won a game for eight weeks before that and indeed away from home, the Seagulls have only won once since November 2023. That was at rock bottom Sheffield United and in the other 10 of their last 11 away PL games, Brighton have managed to score only four goals in total!
Nobody in the top 12 of the Premier League has scored less than Brighton away from home, whilst going into this weekend nobody has scored more at home than Newcastle’s 48 goals this season.
Newcastle have scored 25 goals in their eight PL home games of 2024, so why anybody would think Brighton could only concede one today just doesn’t have any basis on form or stats. Eddie Howe’s side scoring four against Tottenham and five against Sheffield United in their last two home games, whilst four last weekend at Burnley.
The Sky Sports expert talks about Brighton having managed a ‘whopping expected goals figure of 2.53′ at home to Villa last weekend.
Well Newcastle’s expected goals figure against Burnley was 4.26!
Whilst in the last five home games at St James’ Park, Newcastle’s expected goals stats have been 3.33 v Wolves, 3.81 v West Ham, 2.65 v Everton, 3.15 v Spurs, 2.93 v Sheff Utd.
When you then factor in the injury problems Brighton have, with Roberto De Zerbi indicating on Friday they could be missing ten or more players unavailable as starters. It points to only one winner.
Now Newcastle United just have to go out on the pitch and prove the form and stats correct.
Newcastle United matches now confirmed for rest of the season:
Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)
Wednesday 15 May 2024 – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports
Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)
(The final day of the season live TV matches will be selected closer to the day but all 10 PL games will be same time same day)
Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)
Friday 24 May 2024 – A-League All Stars team v Newcastle (at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne)

 
