Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Interesting on Newcastle United ahead of Fulham match

11 hours ago 1

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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Fulham.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Fulham v Newcastle game.

“Fulham have a wretched record against Newcastle, losing the last six meetings while having a player sent off in three of the last seven. They’ve also scored just twice in those seven previous clashes, blanking on five occasions.

“I’d be surprised if they failed to score again, though, based on Newcastle’s defensive output this season.

“Yes, Eddie Howe’s men are unbeaten having taken 10 points from a possible 12, but they’ve faced an average of 1.63 of expected goals against per 90 along with averaging 16.5 shots faced per 90. Only two teams have faced more shots – and the Toon have had a somewhat kind opening set of fixtures.

“Coming out on top when the margins are fine in matches isn’t a sustainable way of picking up points so I’d expect some regression with their results before too long.

“It could come here, where Fulham are a tempting 9/5 with Sky Bet for victory.”

Always interesting to hear what the Sky Sports expert has to say with his analysis on Newcastle United matches and some good stuff there.

However, there are always other stats that he choose to not highlight…

These are the predictions the man from Sky Sports made previously on Newcastle United in the Premier League this season:

Newcastle 3 Southampton 1

Bournemouth 1 Newcastle 0

Newcastle 1 Tottenham 3

Wolve 1 Newcastle 1

Statistically, that tells me the Sky Sports expert only had a 25 percent success rate this season when it come to predicting Newcastle results AND his sole success was when he did forecast a Newcastle United victory!

As Newcastle United fans, none of us are getting too carried away with a handful of results (winning at Forest in the cup as well). However, I think the reaction to those results so far, from the media and indeed certain NUFC fans, has been ridiculous.

Newcastle United have been competitive in all their matches, the stats prove that, when it comes to shots, shots on target, possession, corners and so on. The only exception on that was Spurs, though United still ended up creating more quality chances in that match as well. Gifting Spurs easy possession in non-threatening areas was an Eddie Howe tactic used on purpose, last season Tottenham had 73 percent possession at SJP compared to 66 percent this season, as in both games Howe’s plan was to hit Tottenham’s very high defensive line when winning back possession. Last season it led to a 4-0 hammering of Spurs but this season a hard fought 2-1 victory, as Newcastle didn’t look after the ball well enough generally when they had it.

The win over Southampton was a superb effort when with the game goalless, Schar was then sent off and Newcastle had to play 73 minutes a man down. A clean sheet and getting the winner was exceptional.

Against Bournemouth and Wolves, very similar patterns. Newcastle absolutely dominant the first 20+ minutes, not taking advantage and then a sucker punch home goal each time, having lost possession and caught on break. However, in both these away games, the subs helping United become the more dominance force once again from 60-65 minutes, coming back to draw and win respectively.

Hopefully Newcastle United can start against Fulham as they have done the previous away matches, BUT then this time manage to score first this time if/when on top early, plus then sustain that superiority in the middle part of the match.

The stats the Sky Sports expert uses on how many shots Newcastle have faced is a little misleading, as is the perceived threat to the United goal. The vast majority of the shots faced these season have been from distance and/or blocked by what has been some excellent defending much of the time. When it comes to creating clear quality chances, Newcastle United have had easily more this season than the total created by opposition teams overall.

Newcastle United do have to start and play better across the whole 90 minutes if we are going to keep up the regular supply of wins and points so far, if we do so today, then I think United will make it six wins in a row in their last six visits to Craven Cottage.