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1 month ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Everton.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Manchester City game.
“Everton to receive more cards than Newcastle looks the angle here at 5/6 with Sky Bet – it’s short but bordering on banker material.
“Everton don’t possess players that draw yellow cards off the opposition. They play with great directness and defend deep – teams like that tend not to see passages of play where the game is stretched and cynical fouls are given away.
“Over their last 44 Premier League games, only 1.48 yellow cards have been shown to the opposition per game – only Sheffield United averaged a lower figure – with every one of their eight games this season seeing the opposition team carded fewer than two times.
“Newcastle didn’t pick up a single yellow card in either of the two meetings with Everton last season and only have picked up three in their last four meetings with the Toffees.
“This opens up the possibility of Everton winning the cards race – a bet that has landed in 18 of their last 25 matches across all competitions.
“Score prediction: Everton 2 Newcastle 1
“Best bet: Everton to receive more cards than Newcastle (5/6 with Sky Bet)”
Always interesting to hear what the Sky Sports expert has to say with his analysis on Newcastle United matches and some good stuff there.
I don’t mind if he is proved correct with one of his two predictions!
His stats on cards look pretty solid, reflecting the very negative defensive way that Sean Dyche has Everton playing.
However, in recent games this season for Newcastle United, I am not sure what they tell us.
The last four Premier League matches saw Newcastle pick up four yellows in the win over Tottenham, three cards in the win at Wolves, then another four in the excellent performance and result against Manchester City. However, in the lame defeat at Fulham, Newcastle picked up zero cards. I am sure there is something in that and I am sure Newcastle will be very combative here and pick up a card or two at Goodison Park.
Hopefully that doesn’t include Joelinton, as he has already managed to pick up four in the first six PL matches and will pick up a one match suspension if/when picking up a fifth in the weeks/months coming up.
The Sky Sports expert picks and chooses his stats though and indeed picks and chooses what to recall of what he has confidently predicted before.
He has gone for Everton to win 2-1 today but this is what the Sky Sports man said before Newcastle’s last match…
“Newcastle have become very tame under Eddie Howe.
“When they roared to Champions League qualification they were fierce, energetic and horrible to play against. They are none of those things in their current guise…
“That inability to stem the flow towards your goal leaves them mightily vulnerable to a proper shellacking from Manchester City if Pep Guardiola’s team are in the mood.
“It might sound glaringly obvious but the Evens on offer for City to win and Erling Haaland to score – a man who is averaging a goal every 53 minutes across his last 11 Premier League appearances – looks a winner in waiting.
“Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 Manchester City 3”
The Sky Sports expert had also confidently predicted an easy 3-1 win for Tottenham in Newcastle’s previous home match.
I think that (like a number of Newcastle fans), the Sky Sports pundit has dug himself into a real hole of Newcastle United negativity this season and is ignoring many other NUFC facts and indeed ignoring completely the excellent performance against Man City last weekend.
He predicts Everton to score twice and yet, in Newcastle’s eight matches this season, the Fulham away game is the only one where Eddie Howe’s team have conceded two or more goals. In the other seven, Newcastle have only conceded five goals.
Whilst as for Everton conceding only one today, according to the Sky Sports man’s forecast, they had conceded 14 goals in their opening five PL matches before fluking their 2-1 win over Palace last weekend. Palace should have had the game easily won by the break but wasted loads of chances, with Jarrad Branthwaite’s return to the Everton side a huge factor. He has had a setback in training and is set to miss, he is Everton’s best player, not just best defender. With him, since the start of last season they average 1.4 points per PL match, without him it is only 0.4 points. If Newcastle can’t score at least a couple of goals today, then I don’t think they will have done themselves justice.
This is a match that is there to be won and if Eddie Howe’s side play anything like they did against Man City, then they should take all three points.
Newcastle United upcoming match schedule, confirmed to end of November:
Saturday 5 October – Everton v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports
Saturday 19 October – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)
Sunday 27 October – Chelsea v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports
Wednesday 30 October – Newcastle v Chelsea (7.45pm) Sky Sports+
Saturday 2 November – Newcastle v Arsenal (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports
Monday 25 November – Newcastle v West Ham (8pm) Sky Sports
Saturday 30 November – Crystal Palace v Newcastle

 
