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10 months ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at home to Manchester City.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Manchester City game.
“It takes a brave punter to put faith in the under 2.5 goals line in a Premier League match this season, let alone one involving Manchester City.
“However, doing that may just lead you to profit in putting faith in this game going down a low-scoring avenue.
“Newcastle do possess the defensive structure and ability to seriously frustrate Man City even if their form has wobbled significantly over the Christmas period.
“There have been just five goals scored in the last three meetings between these two clubs as City have found it tough to create big moments against Eddie Howe’s defensive structure.
In those three fixtures, City averaged just 0.97 worth of expected goals and just three shots on target. That is a major drop on both key metrics which have seen City average 2.10 worth of expected goals and 6.3 shots on target per game during the Pep Guardiola era.
And remember, City are facing a team that have conceded just 21 goals in 29 home league games since the start of last season – no team Premier League side have a better home defensive record. The 6/5 with Sky Bet on under 2.5 goals can’t be ignored.
“Score prediction: Newcastle 0 Manchester City 0”
A lot of good stuff in there, as usual, when it comes to what the Sky Sports expert says.
The Sky Sports man actually gets it wrong, since the 3-3 back in August 2022, there have actually been only four goals in the last three matches between the two clubs.
They were:
4 March 2022 – Man City 2 Newcastle 0
19 August 2022 – Man City 1 Newcastle 0
27 September 2022 – Newcastle 1 Man City 0
The Sky Sports man though is correct that Man City have only had nine efforts on target across the three matches, including just two in that latest one at St James’ Park. Eddie Howe’s side have had eight efforts on target across these three matches, including four in the September match.
I haven’t a clue what will happen today but not impossible that it will be a very low scoring games, nor is it impossible that Newcastle can get something from the match. Man City with only three wins in their most recent eight Premier League matches.
Newcastle have drawn 3-3 and won 1-0 in the last two SJP matches against Man City, whilst NUFC have won nine of the eleven home matches this season in all domestic competitions.
Also, across all competitions this season, in 14 home matches, Newcastle have scored the opening goal in 13 of them. The exception was the 1-0 defeat to Dortmund.
All to play for today.

 
