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3 months ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at the Etihad against Manchester City.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Manchester City v Newcastle game.
“Newcastle’s season might just be over come Saturday evening.
“It doesn’t get much tougher than this.
“Upsets are rarely seen at this stage of the competition in the FA Cup.
“In the last 26 games involving Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool or Chelsea in the fifth round or quarter-finals, those teams have won 24 of those 26 games in 90 minutes. And those two defeats both were inflicted by Leicester who were a top-five club at the time and won the trophy in 2021.
“Manchester City to win in 90 minutes is the obvious starting point for a bet even at 2/9 with Sky Bet. This is a team that have won each of last 12 FA Cup games at home, scoring 52 goals and lost just one of their last 58 home matches in all competitions.
“Heading to the cards market may provide a slice of value though as the 25/1 about no cards being shown in the first player to be carded market looks good to me.
“In the last 56 FA Cup fifth-round and quarter-final matches, since replays were scrapped, the average yellow card count per match is just 2.07 – that’s just 116 yellow cards in 56 matches. These types of one-sided games can be played out in a friendly environment and the referee can be a little more lenient than usual. There were no cards in Man City’s fifth-round fixture at Luton and this one could go the same way.
“Score Prediction: Manchester City 4 Newcastle 0”
A lot of good stuff in there, as usual, when it comes to what the Sky Sports expert says.
I can’t argue with the Sky Sports man predicting Man City to win, as of course they are big favourites. However, that isn’t the same as Newcastle United having no chance, in my opinion.
When Eddie Howe made ten changes to his Premier League side back in September, nobody gave NUFC a chance of beating Man City, but we did.
In January, United were 16 minutes away from beating Man City again, only to be undone by two bits of world class Kevin de Bruyne (who is unavailable today) magic late on, not forgetting the fact that Man City’s opening goal should never have stood when Gordon was fouled and forced off the pitch in the build up.
For United to potentially win today, we need Gordon fit I think and massive performances from the likes of him, Isak and Bruno, plus of course the whole team to defend well throughout.
A Newcastle win is unlikely but not impossible.
The last 12 matches have seen Newcastle United score 28 goals.
They have scored at least two goals in 10 of these last 12 matches and NUFC have scored eight goals against the top four in the Premier League in this run, three at Villa, two at Liverpool, one at Arsenal and two at home to Man City.
So I don’t go along with our friend from Sky Sports when totally dismissing United as an attacking force.
Of course if NUFC defend over the course of this match as woefully as they did for that opening goal at Chelsea, we have less than no chance.
So we need everybody to step up from that, especially Dubravka.
I saw one of the NUFC journalists claiming earlier that Eddie Howe has been trying out five at the back in at least some of his training sessions this week. Interesting to see if he uses that today…
Newcastle United confirmed matches to mid-April 2024:
Saturday 16 March 2024 – Man City v Newcastle (5.30pm) BBC1
Saturday 30 March 2024 – Newcastle v West Ham (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Tuesday 2 April 2024 – Newcastle v Everton (7.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 6 April 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3pm)
Saturday 13 April 2024 – Newcastle v Spurs (12.30pm) TNT Sports

 
