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8 months ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at St James’ Park against West Ham.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v West Ham game.
“Lucas Paqueta makes West Ham tick.
“Since start of last season from a 67-game sample size, West Ham have scored 1.6 goals per 90 minutes with him in the team and 0.6 without him. That means his influence is responsible for a goal a game. In such a low scoring sport, that is massive. Flanked by Jarrod Bowen and Mohamed Kudus, West Ham can be an exciting proposition when allowed to play with freedom.
“At almost 3/1 with Sky Bet, they look worth chancing for the away win.
“Joe Willock’s goalscorer price is worth a mention, too. West Ham have shown they can’t cope with his aggressive running into their box. In just 206 minutes of action against them for Newcastle, he’s scored three goals from eight shots. Yes, that’s a small sample size – but that’s a goal every 68 minutes and a shot every 23 minutes.
“His 9/2 anytime goalscorer price does look a punt to keep on your radar.
“Score prediction: Newcastle 1 West Ham 2”
A lot of good stuff in there, as usual, when it comes to what the Sky Sports expert says.
However, like everybody else, he does pick and choose which statistics to highlight…
Plus, the Sky Sports man conveniently ignores the fact that Paqueta’s mate Bruno Guimaraes has been the more dominant figure when these two teams have met. The Hammers lucky to get a very late draw earlier this season at home, whilst the fixture before that saw NUFC smash the Hammers (incl Paqueta…) 5-1 in East London.
Whilst the Sky Sports expert has wanted to make this outcome about how West Ham play on the day, I think in reality it is more about what Newcastle do.
If Eddie Howe’s side play well, then I think definitely a home victory.
I think to be honest, West Ham are in a bit of a false position at the moment, summed up by the fact they have a minus four in terms of goal difference despite being seventh, the worst GD of any team in the top twelve.
Indeed, Newcastle’s GD is 15 goals superior (+11), having scored 13 more and conceded two less than the Hammers.
Whilst in domestic matches, the last 12 games these past three months have seen NUFC with much better form.
Newcastle: Played 12 Won 6 Drawn 2 Lost 4 Goals Scored 26 Goals Against 22
West Ham: Played 12 Won 2 Drawn 6 Lost 4 Goals Scored 14 Goals Against 22
Eddie Howe’s side have scored 11 in their last four Premier League matches at St James’ Park and the Sky Sports man predicting just the one home goal looks unlikely.
Whilst as for West Ham winning, it is worth pointing out that in 43 Premier League games at SJP, Eddie Howe has only lost to four clubs, those having been Liverpool (x3), Man City (x2) and once each to Arsenal and Forest.
In 28 months, six times a very good PL team has won at SJP, whilst Forest are the exception, an ok team but doing a real smash and grab on the break.
If Newcastle don’t give up any defensive gifts today, I think three points for sure.
Newcastle United confirmed Premier League matches to mid-April 2024:
Saturday 30 March 2024 – Newcastle v West Ham (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Tuesday 2 April 2024 – Newcastle v Everton (7.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 6 April 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3pm)
Saturday 13 April 2024 – Newcastle v Spurs (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Wednesday 24 April 2024 – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (8pm)
Saturday 27 April 2024 – Newcastle v Sheff Utd (3pm)
Newcastle United fixtures, including to be confirmed matches:
Saturday 4 May 2024 – Burnley v Newcastle
Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton
Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)
***Man U v Newcastle waiting for rearranged date
Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)
Friday 24 May 2024 – A-League All Stars team v Newcastle (at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne)

 
