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3 days ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters/issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Man U.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Manchester United v Newcastle United game.
“I’m swimming against the tide here and remain quite positive on Manchester United’s prospects under this manager, especially from a defensive point of view.
“The structure and organisation is so much more secure than under Erik ten Hag and may just lead to positive results when confidence returns and Bruno Fernandes stops getting sent off.
“The expected goals data does suggest Ruben Amorim’s influence is already stabilising them slightly, albeit the results make that hard to believe.
“The market has moved too much towards the untrustworthy Toon here who have only won three on the road in their last 10 games in all competitions and were beaten 3-2 by Ten Hag’s side last season at Old Trafford.
“I’ll put my crash helmet on and advise Man Utd on the draw no bet at 10/11 with Sky Bet with no confidence whatsoever purely based on the price.
“Score prediction: Man U 1 Newcastle United 1”
An interesting take from the Sky Sports expert…
I think worth looking at this, what he had to say ahead of the last Newcastle United match against Villa:
“If Villa play with their same swagger in midfield as they did against Manchester City then the 11/4 with Sky Bet on an away win could turn out to be a cracking bet. The axis of Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara with Youri Tielemans playing advanced worked a charm with Tielemans especially flourishing in that role. Score prediction: Newcastle 1 Aston Villa 2″
I get the feeling that our mate from Sky Sports is licking his wounds AND his losses!
In that write up for the previous NUFC match, the Sky Sports man was only interested in talking up reasons why Villa should be expected to play well and win, totally ignoring what Newcastle United could/would do.
Similarly, he is now talking up Man U and basically writing off the strengths that Newcastle United have been showing, scoring 14 goals and only conceding one, when winning all of their last four games. Scoring 19 goals in their last six.
The Sky Sports expert clearly appears intent on wanting to be ‘proved’ correct that the serious upturn in Newcastle form is just a blip, whilst at the same time claiming that Man U are improving under Amorim, when all the evidence in front of our eyes tells us the exact opposite. Man U have conceded 14 goals in their last six games against Premier League opposition, losing five of those matches, only fluking that 2-1 win at Man City in the final couple of minutes thanks to a woeful opposition that day and a lot of luck in those closing stages.
Man U have conceded three at home in both of their last two matches/defeats at Old Trafford, against Forest and Bournemouth. Whilst in their last game they managed to lose 2-0 at Wolves.
The Sky Sports expert wants to talk about Expected Goals stats in terms of Man U defending recently, yet fails to mention that they had an Expected Goals stat of only 0.36 in terms of attacking against Wolves. Whilst on that same day Newcastle had by far the best Expected Goals stat (2.83) of all 16 Premier League teams that played on Boxing Day.
You also have to factor in other pertinent things when considering Expected Goals stats.
For example, if somebody ‘shoots’ from a corner, the Expected Goals stat of that going directly into the goal, will be pretty much zero. Yet Manchester United have done that against Spurs (League Cup) 11 days ago AND against Wolves four days ago. So if you are conceding goals such as that which have an all but non-existent Expected Goals stat as well as all of the other goals Man U are conceding, it points to some serious defensive issues. As opposed to the Sky Sports man claiming the defending is actually improving under Amorim!!
All outcomes are possible in this match, it is still a case of who creates the chances and most importantly, puts those chances away.
However, all available evidence on recent matches and form, strongly suggests that Newcastle United will create far more clear and better chances than Man U. If that proves to be the case, then United will only have themselves to blame if they don’t beat Man U.
Newcastle United upcoming matches:
Monday 30 December – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports
Saturday 4 January – Tottenham v Newcastle (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Tuesday 7 January – Arsenal v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports and ITV1 and ITVX
Sunday 12 January – Newcastle v Bromley (3pm) BBC iPlayer (FA Cup)
Wednesday 15 January – Newcastle v Wolves (7.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 18 January – Newcastle v Bournemouth (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 25 January – Southampton v Newcastle (3pm)
Saturday 1 February – Newcastle v Fulham (3pm)
Wednesday 5 February – Newcastle v Arsenal (8pm) Sky Sports
Saturday 15 February – Man City v Newcastle (3pm)
Sunday 23 February – Newcastle v Forest (2pm) Sky Sports

 
