Sky Sports report – Chances now of Newcastle getting Champions League after 5th place guarantee


 
 
 
 
 
 

An interesting update from Sky Sports, concerning the chances of Newcastle United getting Champions League qualification.

This new report follows Tuesday night’s 2024/25 Champions League action.

Inter winning at Bayern, but most importantly, Arsenal winning 3-0 against Real Madrid.

That latest victory by an English team in Europe has now been the tipping point, with the Premier League now guaranteed a minimum of five Champions League places for the 2025/26 season.

Serie A and La Liga are the only two leagues now fighting for the other bonus Champions League place for next season.

Sky Sports report – 9 April 2025:

‘The Premier League will have at least five teams in next season’s Champions League with England guaranteed one of two spots reserved for Europe’s best-performing nations.

Even if Arsenal, Aston Villa, Man Utd, Tottenham and Chelsea fail to win a single game in Europe for the rest of the season, England will earn one of the two available spaces.

The news will likely be a welcome relief to Chelsea, Man City, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brighton, the teams currently sitting in fourth to eighth place – and all within five points of one another.

Who is most likely to reach the top five?

Opta Premier League probabilities of league finishes

As you can see, the bonus fifth Champions League place makes a huge difference, when it comes to the chances of Newcastle United (and others) playing next season in the top European competition.

The Opta probabilities model gives Eddie Howe’s side a 46% chance of finishing top four. However, that rockets to a 69% chance of ending up in the top five.

As the current Premier League table shows this morning (Wednesday 9 April 2025), United in such a strong position:

Newcastle United now in the home straight and just eight matches to go, to finish the job of Champions League qualification, starting with Man U on Sunday at St James’ Park.