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As if the great Moana 2 box office news wasn’t enough this morning, Disney‘s Barry Jenkins’ directed Lion King prequel, Mufasa, and Paramount‘s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 hit NRG three-week tracking. Currently, the Hedgehog is looking to outrun the Lion, $55M+ to $50M, but keep in mind Disney hasn’t screamed out their campaign yet for Mufasa (that happens on Dec. 2), even though trailers will be in front of a ton of family eyeballs this week on Moana 2.
Right now, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is besting Mufasa in first choice, 11 to 7 for general audiences. Sonic 3 had a big second trailer drop on Monday which trended all day.
The edge that Sonic 3 has is in its fan-fave casting of Keanu Reeves as Shadow, not to mention double Jim Carreys in the roles of Robotnik and his grandfather. Ben Schwartz and Idris Elba are also returning as Sonic and Tails in the popular feature take of the Sega videogame.
Note, it doesn’t matter who wins, just another great moment of all boats rising over Christmas. In the end, it’s about that Christmas multiple which can be as high as 5x-5.5x for family titles opening before the big day. Even though the estimate for Sonic 3 is below its previous installments, Sonic the Hedgehog ($58M) and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($72.1M), tracking is hot on this threequel. Audiences don’t really head out to the movies until Christmas Day which falls on a Wednesday this year. Interest among teen girls is equal to teen boys with 17-34 at a high 16% unaided and 51% definite interest. The threequel is big with moms and both girls and boys. The big plus for part 3 for Sonic fans is double Carreys, in which he plays Robotnik and his grandfather, as well as Reeves’ as the voice of Shadow, which I’m told many fans approve of.
While these openings aren’t at the level of a Star Wars, Avatar or Spider-Man: No Way Home — they’re better than last Christmas’ openings of Wonka ($39M) and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($27.6M).
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