3 months ago
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Over on Threads, the talk of an X “exodus” is blowing up. Anecdotally, at least, people report seeing an influx of new users and other online friends leaving Elon Musk’s X to join Meta’s Threads, with some even deactivating their X account in the process. But while users’ timelines filled with this chatter and various hashtag trends — like “Xodus” and “TwitterExodus” — seemingly point to a massive shift in users from X to Threads over the past week, app store and website traffic data don’t yet reflect any significant changes between the two platforms.
Threads, Meta’s version of a Twitter-like social network with a reduced emphasis on politics, has been growing steadily since its July 2023 global debut. Earlier this month, Meta reported a new milestone for its text-focused platform, which has now crossed 200 million monthly active users, up from 150 million in April 2024.
This week on Threads, there have been multiple active discussions with hundreds of replies discussing the so-called X exodus, where people talked about how their timelines have been filled with posts from those who recently left X for good.
“It certainly felt like a tsunami,” remarked one Threads user, @wanderscotwild_art, in the replies of a discussion about the exodus. “This week feels like a watershed,” said another, @gazzaloz. Many others chimed in to say they, too, had left Twitter/X for Threads or reported a sizable increase in followers.
The supposed exodus from the social network formerly known as Twitter follows X owner Elon Musk’s recent decision to wade into U.K. politics, including by resharing fake news claiming U.K. rioters would be sent to detainment camps and by making comments suggesting that civil war in the country was “inevitable,” leading to much criticism. And that certainly could have been the last straw for some of those who have recently made the switch from X to Threads.
However, when digging into the data to determine how large the exodus everyone on Threads is talking about actually is, we oddly came up short. In fact, multiple sources show little to no change in Threads’ active users or app downloads. In some cases, they even reported slight growth for X.
One such source, app intelligence provider Sensor Tower, estimated that X’s average daily active users worldwide grew 2% from July to August 2024, whereas Threads’ global daily active users remained “largely flat.” Global app installs on both X and Threads also remained unchanged in August compared with July, the firm noted.
In the U.S. specifically, X and Threads grew daily active users by 2% and 3%, respectively, over the past month. One possible signal of a shift could be found in X’s U.S. average daily app downloads in August, which were down by 13% when compared with July, but up 14% for Threads. (This wouldn’t help to explain a U.K.-fueled “X exodus,” though!)
Website traffic provider Similarweb also dug into the X and Threads data after seeing speculation of a shift related to political developments. But it, too, came back with no proof of such a change. Both X and Threads were seeing daily and weekly fluctuations in engagement that are within the normal range across the web and mobile apps, the company told TechCrunch. It also found that X.com’s website traffic had grown 1.4% week-over-week as of the start of this week, while Threads traffic had declined by 1.5%.
One caveat is that Similarweb may not be able to see trends that took place only over the past couple of days, we understand.
Another app intelligence provider, Appfigures, found no evidence of an “X exodus” as of yet, either. In comparing last Friday’s data to today, the firm told TechCrunch there was no “significant change or upward movement” to be seen.
While these third-party estimates could be lagging behind an actual shift in user engagement — one that may be reflected in later data — it’s also possible that more people are simply talking on Threads about how they recently left X because others are doing the same. Threads’ algorithm may have also highlighted these kinds of “quitting Twitter/X” posts in the app’s For You feed because of the engagement around the topic, making even a smaller shift feel much larger and more impactful than it was.
It’s also likely that people who had already set up an account on Threads and had downloaded the app have recently decided to return to it after some time away, counting themselves among those participating in the exodus. Their movement wouldn’t be reflected in app install data, though.
Meta declined to share any recent metrics, pointing only to the 200 million monthly active users referenced during the company’s recent earnings.
Of course, Threads is not the only app to vie for the attention of former Twitter users as of late. X also faces competition from decentralized networks like Mastodon and Nostr, as well as startups like Bluesky, Spoutible, Spill and others.
