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SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…Paramount and Hasbro Entertainment’s Transformers One despite an A CinemaScore/5 stars & 92% PostTrak positive isn’t as robust as anticipated with a $26.3M opening, though still solid for an autumn fall animated movie. That’s because it’s more boys than fanboys. Holding strong is Warner Bros’ third weekend of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice at $25M, -51%. The numbers say everything in terms of the staying power of that Tim Burton directed Jenna Ortega, Michael Keaton, Winona Ryder movie. As we told you yesterday, by Sunday, the sequel is gonna pass the domestic of Shang-Chi. Some magic tricks working in Beetlejuice 2‘s favor is its hold on evening PLFs. Despite the near dead heat that some are spotting at this minute, the notion is that matinees will put Transformers One over the top.
Not wowing are Lionsgate’s Halle Berry $20M genre movie Never Let Go with $1.6M yesterday (including previews) and a $3.8M to $4.7M opening, and unfortunately Mubi’s Demi Moore The Substance isn’t finding a more vibrant life in the higher single digits, stuck in its projections of $2.65M-$3M opening. And you can’t knock Mubi for trying in their first big swing with a wide release. More on that in a bit. CinemaScore audiences like Substance better than Never Let Go, B to C+. PostTrak audiences as well, 86% to 62%.
The entire weekend for all films is coming in at around $82M, which is still considerably richer than the same frame a year ago when the actors’ strike cratered the box office, +57%. Realize this — the weekend is missing around $10M-$12M per sources due to Apple’s decision to ratchet down the George Clooney-Brad Pitt comedy noir Wolfs from a wide release to a limited release (~50 theaters). That was the last figure left on long-lede tracking, and realize that’s at a time when the studio hadn’t fired up their campaign yet. Despite 73% reviews coming out of the Venice Film Festival, Apple didn’t want the lackluster box office headlines for the movie after stumbling with Argyle and Fly Me to the Moon. Exhibition, and the industry overall, would love to have Apple in the mix on marquees. However, natch, the production costs of these movies have to come down, and fare needs to be tailored for the big screen, not the small. While some sources tell me that these big budget movies are merely advertising costs for AppleTV+, as we told you back when Argyle fell apart don’t think that these tech/streaming companies don’t look at bottom lines.
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FRIDAY MIDDAY: Well, this wasn’t expected, however, it’s still early in the weekend. Transformers One is currently pacing lower than expected for a $26M opening off a $9.7M first day (inclusive of $3.36M previews) at 3,978 theaters. Clearly the Josh Cooley directed Paramount Hasbro Entertainment movie is skewing family, and the question remains whether more come out tomorrow. Ditto for any walk-up business from Hispanic and Latino audiences who gave the animated pic high scores last night of 93%; the demo repping 33% of the pic’s business, one digit behind Caucasians. Note, there’s only 5% K-12 schools off today.
Warner Bros.’ third week of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice isn’t far behind with a third weekend of $24.75M, -52%, at 4,172 locations after a $6.75M Friday. The running total is bound for $225.6M by Sunday which will make it the second highest grossing September theatrical release ever at the domestic box office behind 2017’s It at $328.8M and ahead of Disney/Marvel studio’s 2021 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $224.5M. It’s arguably the highest grossing movie for Jenna Ortega in a story role at the domestic B.O. not counting her supporting part as the Vice President’s daughter in Iron Man 3 ($409M).
Third goes to Blumhouse/Universal’s second weekend of Speak No Evil with $5.7M, -50%, after a second Friday of $1.7M and a ten-day total of $21.2M by Sunday.
Fourth might be Lionsgate’s $20M Halle Berry horror film Never Let Go at 2,667 theaters with $1.45M today and between $3M to $4.25M for the weekend. The added advantage that this movie has over Mubi’s Demi Moore-Margaret Qualley body swap genre pic The Substance is that they ran TV spots, vs. the latter’s largely digital campaign, which means it reaches the middle of the country. But at this opening, that’s not saying much.
Fifth is the ninth frame of Disney/Marvel Studio’s Deadpool & Wolverine at 2,450 with $1M today, $4M (-23%) for the weekend, and a running total of $627.4M. By Sunday, the movie will be pacing 1% behind Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 at the same point in time, that pic with a domestic total of $652.6M.
The Substance is eyeing $1.75M today, including previews, for a $3.3M-$3.5M opening at 1,949 locations. The pic, I hear, had an under $10M P&A spend, largely digital.
FRIDAY AM: The first animated Transformers movie in close to four decades, Transformers One, from Paramount and Hasbro Entertainment grossed $3.36M from Wednesday fan shows (7 p.m.) and Thursday previews (5 p.m.).
That figure beats out a slew of family movie previews including that of Paramount’s IF ($1.75M), The Garfield Movie ($2.3M), Trolls Band Together and even the live-action spinoff Transformers movie Bumblebee, which did $2.15M in 2018.
Transformers One opens today on 3,978 domestic screens, including Imax and PLF, and the expectation was a start around $34M. Don’t be shocked if this hits $40M or more. Screen Engine/PostTrak exit polls are strong with 5 out of 5 stars and a 75% definite recommend. The Thursday night audience was made up of 72% general audience, 13% parents (mostly dads at 56%) and 15% kids under 12 (mostly boys at 73%). Transformers One cost $75M before P&A.
The industry does need a new theatrical distributor, and Mubi is making a splash with its acquisition of Universal/Working Title’s The Substance, which minted $512K in previews comprising Wednesday 7 p.m. showtimes in 785 theaters and another $327K in previews from 1,455 theaters Thursday night from 4 p.m. showtimes. The Substance is booked at 1,949 theaters and was projected at a $3M start. It could do more, especially with reviews at 88% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and audience scores of 83%, PostTrak of 80% and 4 stars, for the 2-hour, 21-minute body-swap genre movie starring Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley. The Substance cost $17.5M when it was at Universal. Mubi bought worldwide on the movie for what Iknow hear is $12.5M. Thursday night’s audience was 62% male, with 64% between 18-34.
Remember how Lionsgate had a dud last weekend in The Killer’s Game, which wound up being the lowest opening of Dave Bautista’s solo box office career? That movie did $300K previews last Thursday before posting a $2.68M 3-day (and $3.8M for the week). It looks like the Halle Berry horror film Never Let Go also is headed for the doldrums with $360K previews. The studio believes it has a $4M-$7M opening at 2,667 theaters. Not if you comp it to The Killer’s Game. Do note that before the weekend begins, Berry has the power to guarantee a certain sized opening: Now very-defunct little distributor Aviron saved her movie Kidnap and opened it to $10M in August 2017, which the industry commended at the time. The movie ended its run at close to $31M stateside. Never Let Go, from The Crawl filmmaker Alexandra Aja, was made for $20M, I understand. Reviews are at 56% Rotten. PostTrak on Thursday night was 3 stars and 67%. Yikes. Mostly men attended at 58%, with 18-34 audience at 42%.
Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has crossed the two-century mark with $200.8M after a $2.48M Thursday (-14% from Wednesday) for a second week of $64.4M, -53%, at 4,575 theaters.
Blumhouse/Universal’s Speak No Evil wraps Week 1 with $15.6M after a $791K Thursday, -12%, at 3,375 theaters.
Disney/Marvel Studio’s Deadpool & Wolverine ends Week 8 with $7.1M at 3,075 after a $420K Thursday, -6% from Wednesday and a running cume of $622.8M.
Am I Racist?, the Matt Walsh documentary from The Daily Wire, ends Week 1 with $6.3M at 1,517 theaters after a $405K Thursday, +8% from Wednesday.
Showbiz Direct’s Reagan rages on with a $24.8M domestic cume and a Thursday of $315K, and third week of $4.5M at 2,450 theaters.
