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Trump and Harris Locked in Tight Race on Polymarket
The decentralized prediction marketplace Polymarket recently showed a dead heat between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming US Presidential election. The latest data reveals both candidates held a 49% chance of winning on Sunday.
Just days ago, the disparity between the two contenders was large, with Harris enjoying a comfortable lead. However, recent developments have seen Trump’s odds rise by 1% while Harris’s chances have dipped by the same margin, leveling the playing field.
Back in July, before President Joe Biden officially nominated Harris, his chances of winning stood at a modest 19%, compared to Trump’s 62%. The nomination boosted Harris’s odds, which soared to 53%, while Trump’s slipped to 44%. However, at the time of writing, Trump is slightly ahead at 51%, with Harris trailing close behind at 47%.
Crypto Community’s Role
The intersection of cryptocurrency and politics has become a prominent discussion point this election season. Harris’s campaign recently hosted a 90-minute event organized by the “Crypto For Harris” initiative, featuring notable Democrat lawmakers. However, her absence from the event, coupled with a lack of clear policy direction on digital assets, left many in the crypto community uncertain about her stance on this critical issue.
Conversely, Trump has been more outspoken in his support for the crypto industry. At a July Bitcoin Conference, he advised the government against selling its Bitcoin holding. He was also applauded by the community for pledging to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who is popular for his stringent stance on the industry. Additionally, Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has signaled the family’s deeper involvement in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector by launching a Telegram channel named “The Defiant Ones.”
Upcoming Debates
As the election approaches, both Trump and Harris are scheduled to participate in a series of debates.
For now, Republican vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, and Democratic vice-presidential nominee, Tim Walz, are scheduled for a highly-anticipated debate on October 1. Notably, Vance appears to be more crypto-friendly at the moment for being Trump’s running mate. However, both Vance and Walz have never vocally supported crypto.
These debates are expected to be important in swaying voter opinion and could impact the candidates’ standing on Polymarket and beyond. While crypto policy is just one of many issues on the table, it remains a crucial point of contention.
It is important to note that while influential, Polymarket’s data is speculative and continually evolving. The platform aggregates user sentiment, which fluctuates based on the continuously changing public opinions.
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