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With the last couple of October weekends stateside being off from the strike-laden marketplace a year ago, hopefully, superhero sequelitis and moviegoers’ erratic attitudes toward prestige fare don’t push the theatrical marketplace down further.
Sony has their Marvel title Venom: The Last Dance which is bound to see its lowest opening in the trilogy, stateside that is, after the previous installment, Venom: Let There Be Carnage opened to a franchise high of $90M in October 2021 fueled by fanboys yearning to return to cinemas post Covid. The original Venom once owned the October opening record back in 2018 at $80.2M before 2019’s Joker unseated it with $96.2M.
U.S./Canada presales and tracking indicate an opening that’s just under that of 2022’s Black Adam ($67M) at $65M. Overseas is looking at $85M –possibly higher– for an all-in global weekend of $150M. Previews in U.S./Canada start at 2PM on Thursday. Young males under 25 are the first in, followed by older males over 25, which is to be expected on a comic-book movie as such. The latest Venom is directed the by franchise’s longtime scribe and producer, Kelly Marcel. Star Tom Hardy co-wrote with her and he also produces here in a story about Eddie and his nefarious alter ego Venom being on the run, after being outed to the world in Let There Be Carnage.
The previous two Venoms received B+ CinemaScores. Reviews to dollars, the franchise has been critic proof with the first movie seeing a 30% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and part two improving to 57% rotten. The first Venom made $213.5M domestic, $856M worldwide, while Let There Be Carnage made $213.5M domestic, $506.8M worldwide.
Venom: The Last Dance starts its international rollout on Wednesday and will be out in 90% of the offshore landscape this weekend before adding France and Japan later down the road.
In China, The Last Dance is leading midweek presales. However, given the overall softness of the market, we are not expecting anywhere near the first film’s $107M+ launch.
Let There Be Carnage came out staggered as the pandemic was easing. Geo-politics were different back then, with Russia contributing a lot to that film’s start.
Venom 2 at the time fed audiences hungry as the pandemic eased; it did 58% of its business overseas versus the first movie’s 75% (which included a China release whereas Venom 2 did not see the inside of cinemas there).
Focus Features is opening their critically acclaim Edward Berger directed, Ralph Fiennes starring papal thriller Conclave to $4M-$6M at 1,742 cinemas. Previews start Thursday at 2PM. Coming out of Telluride and TIFF, Conclave notched 95% fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes.
Meanwhile stateside, A24 and Studio Canal’s wide break of the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romance, We Live in Time, at 2,000 theaters is expected to see around $5M.
