2 months ago
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The Nigerian economy envisaged by the Nigerian Constitution is a prosperous one. The Constitution states, among other things, that the leadership should harness the nation’s resources and promote national prosperity and an efficient, dynamic, and self-reliant economy. That is what those who put the constitution or manufactured it desire for the country and what we deserve, but it is not what we are getting. Each time a new president is elected and he resumes, he forgets that he had sworn to uphold the constitution in all ramifications. He behaves as if he was elected to take up the punishment from where his predecessor stopped.
Ola Rotimi exclaimed, “The gods are not to blame”. William Shakespeare explained that the fault is not in our stars but in ourselves …. while Chinua Achebe told us that the problem with Nigeria is leadership. I cannot agree more with these scholars. Jokingly, we ask ourselves, “Whom did we offend?”. Offend ke? Whom did America offend when they elected Donald Trump? When they were playing the xenophobic politics, they imposed him on themselves. But they quickly retraced their steps and voted him out. When we stop playing the politics of naira and kobo, or ethnicity and religious bigotry, we will deliver ourselves from bad governance.
In every election, we seem to impose on ourselves odaju leaders who are selfish to the bone marrow. They harness our resources to promote personal aggrandizement and prosperity. When this government assumed office, majority seemed to be on the same page that the Tinubu administration inherited a dead economy from Muhammadu Buhari, and the suffering of the citizens was much. Poverty was oozing out of the land, and many young people were voting with their feet or japa. Hope was however rekindled that a democrat who had performed fairly well at the sub-national level had taken over and a turn-around was invariably expected. The economy has since gone awry, not because the resources have run dry or are not available but because of profligacy, mismanagement, and misapplication.
Reports show that Nigeria’s crude oil export revenue in 2023 was N29 trillion or about 60 billion US dollars, a 37 percent increase compared to N21.1 trillion in 2022. The foreign trade in the third quarter of 2023 rose by 53.16 percent year-on-year to N18.80 trillion. The petroleum industry accounts for about 5.5 percent of Nigeria’s GDP and around 92 percent of the value of all exports.
According to nairametrics.com and statements by the President himself, the country’s revenue was over N9.1 trillion in the first half of 2024. The GDP grew by 2.98% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2024. Even the country surpassed Quarter one of the 2024 Non-Oil Revenue target by 30% and exited the ways and means trap. So, there has been improved revenue and an economic turnaround, which the government also talked about with pride. Yet the policy of hardship continues to deprive the citizens of the joy of living in Nigeria. Another round of inflation is envisaged with the recent increase in fuel and an unfriendly attitude towards domestic oil production and distribution.
There is a need for policies that promote macroeconomic stability such that planning by the private sector can be enhanced. The prices of imports are part of the restrictions to domestic production, and the reserves must be preserved and strengthened to promote appreciation of the naira. Such appreciation is important not only to bring down the cost of imports and promote domestic production but also to promote foreign investments. Foreign investors compute how much their take-home profits will be based on the exchange rate.
It is clear that the current flooding in the North presently will result in food shortage very soon as large hectares of farmlands have been washed away. We cannot afford to wait until we get to the bridge to cross. Preparation must be on now to care for the impending shortage and food insecurity. The economic hardship arising from the economic policies of removal of fuel subsidies and market-determined exchange rate have killed many small and medium-term enterprises. The need to assist the existing SMEs to expand with deliberate policies is imperative.
Recently, I was in Abuja waiting by the roadside for transport to a conference centre and a taxi just stopped, and the driver urged me to enter. On entering, he introduced himself as my former student at the university. We engaged in conversation, and he told me how he lost his job in a medium-scale business due to current economic policies, which made him convert his car to UBER (as they generally refer to themselves these days). Those who did not have cars or what can be converted to money-making facilities are somewhere licking their wounds and cursing whoever has put them in such a condition. So the need to facilitate the recovery of the SME sub-sector is as urgent as promoting the large-scale industrial sector.
The industrial sector has the virtue of forward and backward linkages in production and employment generation with accompanying technological advancement and innovation.
Whatever taxes generated from the sector should be expended largely in promoting the growth of the sector to reap greater returns. There is a need to chart a new course in our spending. The idea of spending in anticipation of income generation has led the country into greater debt and debt servicing.
The economic policy of distributing palliatives needs to stop and be substituted with the policy of subsiding production in the SMEs in particular. Activities in the mineral sector require monitoring, transparency, and accountability. Contributions of the non-oil sector should not be placed on tax or revenue collection alone but also on production. So, agricultural production, mining, information technology, et cetera need to be properly encouraged through direct policy initiatives and implementation, including support with financial and non-financial grants.
It is believed that the government has secured a moratorium on some of the debts owed and can safely use new income or revenue coming in to assist in waking up dying businesses and
promoting new ones so that the contributions to the GDP from the real sub-sector of the non-oil sector can increase and improve. Such a situation has greater multiplier effects than rent-seeking
activities. An evaluation of the travels to attract foreign investment ought to have been carried out by now to determine the next line of action and save money.
The President and the policymakers should now be preoccupied with how to reduce inflation, how to generate revenue from improved production and new employment rather than from taxation, and how to reduce the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria. It should be engrossed with how to improve the quality of education and health services to improve labour productivity; how to make food available and affordable; and how to relieve the economic burden on the citizens so that they can prevent and even bury any protests on bad governance.
The concept of Afenifere becomes relevant here. Afenifere means someone who also wishes other people well. A good example is found in Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who was aware of the benefit of education as a turnaround instrument for poverty-stricken households. He could afford to send his children to quality schools, even using public funds, and derive the benefits, but he chose to do the same for many other households who could not afford such ventures through the introduction and execution of Free Education. Today, many of us so liberated are still celebrating him and will do so forever. His great-grandchildren will continue to reap the fruit of his labour.
Today, Awolowo’s name still rings a bell beyond Nigeria. What you plant today is what you reap tomorrow. The Nigerian economic dream is enshrined in the Constitution. The government should be guided by that dream.
