What to Expect When Hurricane Milton Rams Into Florida

When Hurricane Milton makes landfall, it will bring devastating winds, torrential rains, and dangerous storm surges that government officials say pose a major threat to human life and property. Here’s what to expect as the Category 4 storm barrels towards Florida.

On Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center warned of an “extremely life-threatening” situation for residents along portions of Florida’s west coast, and advised anyone in the affected areas to evacuate if told to do so by local officials. Hurricane warnings are in effect for west and east central Florida, while tropical storm warnings have been issued for the north and south coastal areas.

As of Tuesday morning, air pressure in Milton was measuring 929 millibars. In hurricanes, lower air pressure is tied to greater force. For comparison, 2022’s Hurricane Ian had a barometric pressure of 979 millibars when it made landfall, and the average sea level air pressure is 1013.25 millibars.

A graphic showing where hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect. © National Hurricane Center

While Milton has been downgraded from a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 4 due to a slight dip in wind strength, winds inside the hurricane were still measured at 150 miles per hour (241 kilometers per hour) on Tuesday morning. The NHC forecasted that the hurricane will maintain those winds for the next 24 hours, before dropping slightly as the hurricane moves inland.

4 am CDT – Extremely powerful Hurricane #Milton is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida Wednesday night. This is a very serious threat and residents in Florida are urged to listen to local officials.… pic.twitter.com/UifYnQO9rf

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 8, 2024

Even with that drop, the National Weather Service warned winds could reach as high as 110 miles per hour (177 km/hr) by the time the storm hits eastern Florida, and that potential impacts of the tropical storm could be “extensive,” with even sturdy buildings likely to incur structural damage. Mobile homes will likely be “severely damaged, with some destroyed.” Some parts of Florida “may be uninhabitable for weeks,” the organization added.

“Efforts to protect life and property should now be rigorously underway,” the NWS said in a hurricane warning issued just after 8 a.m. on Tuesday. “Prepare for considerable wind damage.”

Though the full force of the hurricane isn’t expected to hit until Wednesday, the National Weather Service forecasts thunderstorms for the Tampa area starting on Tuesday afternoon. Once Milton does hit, it will bring with it not just powerful winds, but up to 12 inches of rain in some parts of Florida. That, in turn, could lead to flash floods and urban flooding, NOAA warned.

Areas under a storm surge warning are shown in bright pink in this graphic, while regions under a storm surge watch are in purple. © National Hurricane Center

The powerful winds could lead to large storm surges, driving a significant rise in sea levels along much of Florida’s west coast and the mid- to northeastern coast. Storm surges are caused by strong winds pushing on the ocean’s surface, creating a vertical circulation of water. As hurricanes approach shallower waters, such as those near the Florida coast, the ocean floor disrupts this circulation, forcing the water upward and onto land. The NHC said storm surge levels could reach 10 feet (3 meters) or greater, and people in those areas should evacuate on Tuesday, as there will likely not be time to do so on Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service, storm surges are the leading cause of hurricane-related deaths in the United States.

National Hurricane Center models predict tropical storm level winds will hit the westernmost areas of Florida as early as Wednesday at 8 a.m. local time, though landfall is more likely to occur later in the day. By 8 p.m. that day, the storm is forecasted to sweep through central Florida on its way to the east coast, before heading out into Atlantic waters on Thursday morning. Milton could very well enter and exit Florida as a hurricane.

This graphic shows the most likely time frame for Hurricane Milton’s path across Florida. © NOAA

Florida isn’t the only state that could be affected by Milton. The Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency said in a statement that impacts will be felt far from the storm’s center, including in south Georgia. That includes up to six inches (15 centimeters) of rainfall, and winds of up to 50 miles (80 kilometers) per hour, in some counties. Up to four feet (1.2 meters) of storm surge waters could cause flooding in some coastal regions of the state.

🚨 STORM SURGE is DEADLY! #Milton will bring life-threatening flooding along the west coast of FL. If you’re in a surge zone, prepare for the worst NOW! Follow evacuation orders or your life will be at risk. Don’t gamble with storm surge!

🌊 https://t.co/YbTCtJCzgd pic.twitter.com/mqoFlQXWBj

— FEMA (@fema) October 7, 2024

South Carolina Emergency Management also said the state could be affected by Milton, but organization director Kim Stenson said in a press release that the agency’s priority “remains recovery from Hurricane Helene.”

That storm, which made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 last week, knocked out power for millions of people across the U.S. southeast, and caused inland flooding in several states, including Tennessee and North Carolina.