Why Newcastle’s crazy project is going nowhere

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Three years ago, almost to the day, Newcastle was bought by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and gave hope to all its supporters. That of returning to the forefront, while he was embroiled in a difficult season. First mission, stay in the Premier League. Then establish itself as one of the strongholds of the English championship over time. For this, massive investments have been made, with more than €500 million disbursed on the transfer market. Not necessarily to recruit already established stars.

This was also one of the surprises of the new governance. Many in England feared a new Manchester City, with a club backed by a state that can spend lavishly to recruit the best players in the world. Mohamed Salah, Neymar or João Félix were announced. We finally were treated to Bruno Guimarães, Sven Botman, Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon. A strategy which initially bore fruit, with Eddie Howe on the bench, since the Magpies finished the following season in 4th place, qualifying for the Champions League. But since then, the good progress has stalled. And the causes are multiple, as explained in Daily Telegraph.

Financial fair play has pulled the rug out from under us

First point, the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR, English financial fair play) quickly extinguished any hope of delusions of grandeur. It was set up shortly after the Newcastle takeover. As a result, the club was very close to being sanctioned last June, and it took a few micmacs, notably with Nottingham Forest, to balance the books a little. Limited by this strict PSR, Newcastle cannot therefore take full advantage of its status as the richest club in the world. Worse, today, any player on the squad could be sold to stay on top financially.

Second point raised by the Daily Telegraphthe impossibility, for the moment, of relying on sponsorships derived from the majority shareholder. Two sponsors come from Saudi Arabia, Sela and Noon, and bring in €30 million and €7.7 million per year respectively. The leaders are carefully watching what is currently happening with Manchester City, which notably defends the possibility of transactions between associated parties. Currently, Newcastle are restricted from benefiting from lucrative sponsorship deals linked to certain Saudi companies. They have developed others, but that does not allow him to join the top flight in England.

Income still far from the English top

Where PSG has managed to establish itself and become a global brand, developing as many different resources as possible, Newcastle is not yet a juggernaut. His commercial revenues have still increased (250 million pounds in 2022-2023), but only place him 7th in England, far from Arsenal (465 million pounds) and especially Manchester United (661 million pounds) . Seventh is also the ranking obtained during the last Premier League season, which did not allow him to access Europe.

Third downside, the fact that Newcastle is not even the priority of its investor. If the PIF had initially communicated about its desire to develop the club, happy to set foot in the Premier League, it does not particularly want to do more, and is content to see it fight for the moment in the first third of the ranking. Another proof of a form of Saudi Arabia’s disinterest in Newcastle: when the danger of a sanction from the PSR was imminent last June, there was no rescue operation via clubs in the Saudi championship for buy a player for an unreasonable sum. The €27 million paid for Saint-Maximin was the exception, far from certain purchases made elsewhere. However, this is a flaw identified in the PSR rules, which would have allowed Newcastle to reinvest massively in the transfer market.

Today, the rumors regarding the Newcastle transfer window concern more potential departures, between the mutual interest between Gordon and Liverpool or the fear of losing Bruno Guimarães in each transfer window. After three years of presence, the PIF has put Newcastle back in the first part of the table, but has not yet made it a protagonist for the title. And this is obviously not the priority of the shareholder, who would be largely satisfied with qualification for the next C1. Not an easy task in a Premier League that is more competitive than ever.

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