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SUNDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…Two of the most anticipated tentpoles this year missed their projections, but are still rich enough make exhibition happy in what’s driving an overall $205M weekend. Everyone relish it: That’s on par with the pre-Thanksgiving frame of 2019 when Frozen 2 drove all titles to $204.9M, and it’s the biggest since 2013 when Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire drove all titles to a $226.5M marketplace. Hands down, biggest pre-Thanksgiving post pandemic.
Spilt up, Universal’s Wicked opened to $114M while Paramount‘s Gladiator II did $55.5M. And there’s money coming, not just with kids off this week, but Disney’s Moana 2 firing up Tuesday night. Worldwide at $162.4M, Wicked is also the biggest opening ever around the world for a Broadway feature adaptation, exceeding Les Miserables ($103M).
This is usually the opportunity in a pre-Covid marketplace where we would scream foul, however, give thanks for what we got: The biggest opening for a movie based on a Broadway musical of all-time, exceeding the previous record set by Into the Woods by +268%, and a sequel which is Denzel Washington’s highest opening of all-time, besting American Gangster ($43.5M). Gladiator II is also the best R-rated opening for November, beating 2002’s 8 Mile ($51.2M).
Paramount was smart to get ahead of Wicked overseas with Gladiator II, not just because of competition, but to earn more for this $250M behemoth.
Originally, remember, Moana 2 and Wicked were playing a game of chicken on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, essentially, cannibalizing their heavy female audiences. I understand that Disney and Universal executives were encouraged by their partners that one should move, in order to create another Barbenheimer weekend. Wicked was the wiser.
“On behalf of the people who operate movie theatres around the world, congratulations to our studio partners and the creative community for one of the most successful November weekends ever at the box office,” exclaimed National Association of Theatre Owners President & CEO Michael O’Leary about the weekend. “Once again, it’s clear that when healthy competition meets premium experiences, the marketplace thrives, and consumers win. The success of movies like Wicked and Gladiator II, not to mention hearty presales already for Moana 2, demonstrates just how much movie fans of all ages enjoy going to the movies. Nothing tops the cinematic experience, and audiences are loving it. This is a tremendous catalyst for a strong box office going into December and the new year.”
“Glicked will deliver the second highest November weekend for the post-pandemic box office at Regal, only bested by the opening of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in 2022.” added John Curry, SVP of Commercial at Regal.
Exclaimed, Universal Domestic Distribution Head Jim Orr, “Wicked is a spectacular cinematic event as audiences embraced Jon M. Chu’s incredible take on the film that generations of fans around the world have been waiting for. The production of this beloved property is something that must be experienced on the biggest screen as the mesmerizing performances of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande emotionally catapult audiences to Oz.”
UPDATED, SATURDAY AM: Universal’s Wicked is coming in with a $46.7M Friday plus previews, which has the studio predicting a $117M opening at this point. Paramount’s Gladiator II stands at $60M after a $22M Friday/previews.
Wicked gets an A CinemaScore, a grade that’s up there with other Broadway feature adaptations such as Les Miserables (A), Chicago (A-), Annie (A-), Mamma Mia (A-) and higher than Into the Woods (B). Gladiator II gets a B versus the original 2000 movie’s A. Still, moviegoers like the latter with 84% on Rotten Tomatoes audience meter and 4 stars on PostTrak with a strong 64% definite recommend.
There was a lot of pent-up demand for a repeat of Barbenheimer this weekend at the box office. That’s a high bar to reach, but a form of it exists with these two movies ringing in $177M alone in a frame that’s shaping up to be an estimated $209M for all titles. Also consider the fact that we’re not in the deep of summer. The biggest mistake by the industry would be not to have created a Glicked weekend.
By the way, you know it’s an excellent weekend when the opening titles are stealing screens from the competition. “Everyone below Wicked and Gladiator II is getting crushed,” says one theatrical booker, “Theater managers are just pulling titles off showtimes and giving them to those two films.”
Exhibitors are upping the out-of-home experience. B&B Theatres has Roman guards tearing tickets and serving Strength & Honor cocktails in celebration of Gladiator II. Alamo Drafthouse Cinema is selling “Defying Gravi-Tea”, Witch’s Brew and throwing Emerald City soirees. Marcus Theatres has character appearances by Elphaba and Glinda, and pink and green ICEE’s.
Let’s keep in mind a few things in case the marketplace hits a bump, but really, there is nothing to complain about:
Demos on Wicked are 72% women with 6% between 13-17, 25% between 18-24, 32% between 25-54 (the biggest demo), and 38% of the audience over 35. Diversity demos are 54% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black and 8% Asian. PLF screens and some Imax are delivering just over a third of the weekend to Wicked‘s business. The Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo movie is playing best in the East but pretty even across the country with AMC Universal Citywalk the highest grossing multiplex in America with $197K so far. Universal is forecasting a $165M global opening weekend for Wicked at this point in time.
Gladiator II at a cost of $250M before P&A already has $130M coming from overseas to date. It will easily touch or near $200M WW this weekend. The Denzel Washington and Paul Mescal movie has all the Imax screens (and some PLFS) and driving 32% of its 3-day. Gladiator II is playing best in the South Central and West with AMC Lincoln Square the top venue with $74K so far.
Fourth place goes to Angel Studios’ Bonhoeffer. Pastor. Spy. Assassin at 1,900 sites with $2.3M Friday and $4.65M for the weekend off an A Cinemascore. The movie from the faith-based studio is playing the middle of the country with Penn Cinema 14 in Lititz, PA the highest grossing cinema for the pic with $12K so far. Female leaning at 54% with 79% of those who bought tickets over 35 and the faith-based core showing up at 50% over 55. Mostly Caucasian at 71% with 13% Latino and Hispanic and 8% Asian.
Notables:
Anora (NEON) 500 (-1,000) theaters, Fri $210K (-60%), 3-day $700K (-60%), Total $12.3M/Wk 6
UPDATED, Friday PM: The Glicked weekend is currently looking like a $120 million opening for Universal’s Wicked after a $48.5M Friday plus previews, while Gladiator II is shaping up to $23.5M in Friday/previews turning into a $61M opening weekend at 3,573 locations.
Generally, midday projections are conservative, so we’ll see whether there’s a rush of ladies tonight, and families into tomorrow, for Wicked. Per Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, 71% women showed up last night. Gladiator II is more the date-night movie with 61% men and 39% women showing up to Thursday screenings.
For the month of November, Wicked currently ranks as the 10th biggest opening ever at the domestic box office, while also feasibly breaking the opening record for a movie based on a Broadway musical, defeating Stephen Sondheim’s Into the Woods ($31M). It’s also the third biggest opening of 2024 year to date, ahead of Warner Bros’ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111M). Wicked Part One, before P&A, cost $150M. The Jon M. Chu-directed title is booked at 3,888 theaters and is currently expected to post a $30,800 per-theater average.
PostTrak exits are strong for Wicked with 5 stars for general audiences and parents, and 4 1/2 stars for kids under 12. It’s a generational draw whereby the moms who saw it when hit Broadway in 2003 as children are now in their 30s taking their own kids to the movie. Wicked gets a 90% positive with a through-the-roof 80% definite recommend.
As we mentioned before, Gladiator II was always shaping up to be Ridley Scott’s biggest opening at the domestic box office, besting Hannibal ($58M). It’s also Denzel Washington’s best stateside start, ahead of American Gangster ($43.5M), which was also a movie he did with Scott. As we told you earlier in the week, the sequel, which got a head start ahead of Wicked abroad, already crossed the century mark at the overseas box office. Gladiator II PostTrak exits are also solid at 4 stars and a 77% positive.
Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ Red One is seeing a second Friday of $3.4M, and a second weekend of $13.5M, -58%, for a running total of $53M at 4,032 sites. The $200M-$250M Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans production crossed the $100M global mark today.
Angel Studios has a wide release this weekend, the period drama thriller Bonhoeffer. Pastor. Spy. Assassin at 1,900 sites, which is looking like $2.4M today and $4.8M for the weekend in fourth place. The Todd Komarnicki-directed and -written thriller follows Dietrich Bonhoeffer, who joins a deadly plot to assassinate Hitler, risking his faith and fate to save millions of Jews from genocide.
Fifth goes to Sony’s fifth weekend of Venom: The Last Dance with a $900K Friday and $4M weekend, taking its domestic tally to $133.8M.
FRIDAY AM UPDATED AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Universal is calling Wicked Part One‘s previews at $19.2 million.
That number for the Jon M. Chu-directed, Cynthia Erivo- and Ariana Grande-starring feature take of the Broadway musical is comprised of Monday and Wednesday fan screenings, plus Thursday’s previews that began at 2 p.m.
Broken down: Monday’s Amazon Prime screenings generated $2.5M at 750 theatres in the U.S. Wednesday advance screenings grossed another $5.7M from 2,000 theaters in the U.S. and Canada. Standard previews yesterday at 3,300 theaters yielded a total Thursday gross of $11M.
Just in terms of pure advance cash, Wicked is just under the $23M preview cash of Disney’s 2019 The Lion King, and Warner Bros’ Barbie at $22.3M (that gross wsa from both Wednesday and Thursday shows). It’s way ahead of Disney’s 2017 live-action adaptation of Beauty and the Beast ($16.3M). Updated gut from tracking this AM on Wicked is $120M+. The other factor to keep in mind on heavy female-skewing movies is that they can cave on a Saturday, e.g., Barbie was down 32% off Friday/previews and Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 was off 26%. But there are exceptions, particularly on movies that have a family factor, e.g., Beauty and the Beast dipped -2% between its Friday to Saturday.
Paramount’s official number on the R-rated Gladiator II is $6.5M at 3,200 locations. That preview figure is right in the neighborhood of myriad recent sequels that delivered varying openings, including Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($6.6M previews, $58.4M 3-day), No Time to Die ($6.3M, $55.2M) and Bad Boys for Life ($6.3M, $62.5M). There’s also the Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny comp. Tracking’s updated forecast for the sequel epic directed by Ridley Scott and starring Paul Mescal and Denzel Washington is $59M-$66M. Rotten Tomatoes audience score is a healthy 84%.
RELATED: Jon M. Chu’s ‘Wicked’ Soundtrack: What Songs Are In ‘Part 1’?
Keeping tabs: The running cume for the 2024 box office through November 17 stood at $7 billion, $889M behind the same period in 2023 and 9% ahead of the same period in 2022 (the Top Gun: Maverick box office year). This is all according to Comscore. Starting this weekend through New Year’s Eve, can we clear another $2 billion to get us to last year’s $9B final?
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: From New York City to Kansas and onward to the City of Angels, mobs are going to the movies tonight as Universal’s long-awaited Wicked Part One and Paramount’s Gladiator II square off for what is expected to be one of the year’s richest weekends. To date, the biggest weekend for all titles year-to-date was July 26-28, per Comscore, when Deadpool & Wolverine sent the entire marketplace to $285.3 million.
Early figures tonight — not attributed to any studios because they stay mum until tomorrow morning — is that Wicked is casting an estimated spell of $8M tonight alone. However, if you count Monday’s Amazon promotion previews and last night’s premium-format fan showings, that total preview tally flies to around $20M, I hear. As we told you previously, we heard presales were around $30M; however, once there’s a must-see title for female moviegoers, they’ll definitely book a date to the cinema. With walk-up business unpredictable, the outlook is wild for Wicked, with a three-day total estimated between $130M-$150M. The argument on the lower end of the projection is that the Jon M. Chu-directed, Marc Platt-produced movie is 2 hours and 40 minutes.
The biggest opening for any feature musical is Jon Favreau’s 2019 The Lion King at $191.7M; it had a runtime of 1 hour and 58 minutes. The biggest opening for a movie based on a Broadway musical is Into the Woods ($31M). Universal’s Mamma Mia! sequel, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, opened bigger at $34.9M, however, that wasn’t based on stage musical IP. Wicked has all the spells to overperform this weekend at 90% certified fresh with critics and a 99% audiences score on Rotten Tomatoes.
RELATED: ‘Wicked’ Movie Cast: Who Plays Who?
Words cannot to begin to detail the amount of marketing oomph Universal put behind this movie, and more amazingly, they did so on the feature adaptation of a Broadway musical — a genre with which Hollywood has a love-hate relationship. Wicked‘s marketing playbook makes Disney’s promotional plans for Star Wars: The Force Awakens look like some grassroots guerrilla stunt for a SXSW movie.
Granted, the means by which Uni made its preview cash is apples to oranges compared with previous titles, however, in terms of pure dollars, Wicked‘s total cash is ahead of Beauty and the Beast‘s $16.3M as well as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1‘s $17M, both female-skewing tentpoles. Beauty and the Beast clocked at 2 hours and 9 minutes and opened to $174.7M, while Mockingjay 1 was 2 hours and 3 minutes and debuted to $121.8M.
Gladiator II, meanwhile is between $6.5M-$7M and that’s for Thursday alone. Duly note, Paramount didn’t have big preview days in advance, just a small 200-theater “Screen Unseen” sneak. Critics really have nothing to complain about with the Ridley Scott-directed sequel at 72% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Gladiator II‘s preview dough is akin to that of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny ($7.2M Thursday) which got it to a $60.3M opening. That’s right around what Gladiator II is expected to conquer by Sunday.
As we always say on Thursday, take these estimates with a grain of salt. If the studio reports lower, it doesn’t necessarily mean a movie is without momentum.
RELATED: Where To Watch ‘Gladiator’: Is Ridley Scott’s 2000 Film Streaming?
What was clear from Deadline’s rounds at theaters tonight is if you want to get your wiccan on, ya dress up and head over to the TCL Chinese Theatre on Hollywood Boulevard, or you head to a place that’s no place like home: re Dorothy’s home in Kansas City, KS. Meanwhile, over at the AMC in Burbank, CA, which is usually any film’s highest-grossing cinema in the nation in a given weekend, the 6 p.m. Imax of Gladiator II was sold out.
Natalie Sitek contributed to this report.
