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XRP enthusiasts are in a frenzy after prominent community figure Chad Steingraber proposed a scenario where an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) could trade at a staggering 100x premium.
Steingraber, a seasoned game designer, laid out his thoughts in a recent post, igniting discussions about the potential trajectory of an XRP ETF, particularly in light of the ongoing push for institutional adoption of the altcoin.
Targeting A $500 XRP ETF Share Price
Steingraber’s speculation centers around the price at which an XRP ETF’s shares might trade. His hypothesis hinges on the crypto reaching an unprecedented price of $5 per coin. In this scenario, he theorizes that the corresponding ETF could soar to equally unprecedented heights, potentially reaching a solid $500 per share.
The actual underlying asset price does NOT have to skyrocket. The fund can trade at MASSIVE Premiums.
Let’s say #XRP breaks ATH @ $5, its ETF fund could literally trade at 100x premium if the institutional demand kicks in.
Yes, that’s right, a $500 #XRP Institution Premium. 👍 https://t.co/bwN6cGmmZd pic.twitter.com/tHyy4fkbeK
— Chad Steingraber (@ChadSteingraber) March 27, 2024
This hefty premium, according to Steingraber, would be fueled by a surge in institutional interest in the ETF. He cites the Grayscale Litecoin Trust (LTCN) as a prime example.
Similar to his proposed XRP ETF, LTCN trades at a significant premium over Litecoin’s current market price. Despite Litecoin hovering around $95, investors in LTCN are currently paying a premium of over $250 per Litecoin equivalent within the trust.
Can Arbitrage Opportunities Emerge?
The prospect of such a high premium has sparked discussions about potential arbitrage opportunities. X user Zack, in response to Steingraber’s post, questioned whether individuals holding XRP could exploit this price disparity. Steingraber acknowledged the possibility, particularly if the issuing ETF allows for in-kind deposits, where investors can directly exchange their token for ETF shares.
However, he cautioned that in-kind deposits are still a rarity in the ETF market. While Steingraber expressed optimism about the future adoption of this practice, its absence presents a hurdle for immediate arbitrage opportunities.
The XRP community has long advocated for asset managers, especially industry giant BlackRock, to launch an XRP ETF. They believe such a product would significantly bolster the value of XRP by increasing its accessibility to institutional investors.
XRP up in the last seven days. Source: Coingecko
A Speculative Outlook With Underlying Uncertainties
It’s crucial to remember that Steingraber’s vision is entirely speculative. As of today, no asset manager has taken concrete steps towards applying for an XRP ETF. Furthermore, the justification for such a high premium rests heavily on the assumption of substantial institutional demand, a factor that remains uncertain.
The applicability of the Grayscale Litecoin Trust comparison also requires further scrutiny. The specific structure and features of an XRP ETF would significantly influence whether a similar premium dynamic would emerge.
A Reality Check For Investors
While Steingraber’s prediction has certainly captured the community’s imagination, investors are advised to approach it with a healthy dose of caution. The approval timeline for an XRP ETF hinges on the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s stance on cryptocurrency ETFs.
Additionally, competition from other potential ETFs could play a role in determining the premium, if any.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from TradingView
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