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SUNDAY AM WRITETHRU: After Saturday AM update…refresh for chart The second weekend of September for all movies looks to jump past $100M for the first time since pre-Covid 2019 thanks to Warner Bros’ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rally at the box office, coming in at $51.6M weekend (-56%) after a second Friday of $14.4M and Saturday of $22.5M. The running stateside total is $188M.
The entire weekend’s marketplace is 61% ahead of a year ago when New Line’s Nun II battled through the actors strikes when casts weren’t permitted to promote. The same frame in 2019 grossed $110.8M per Box Office Mojo, boosted by the second weekend of New Line’s It: Chapter Two.
Blumhouse/Universal’s Speak No Evil came in a little lower than what we were seeing yesterday with $11.5M to $12.3M, but above its $10M projection. This movie in its essence feels arthouse with its UK countryside setting and dialogue-driven quiet thriller narrative. For a movie like this, based on the 2022 Danish horror sensation Gæsterne, that’s pretty impressive. CinemaScore is a B+, which is very high for a genre movie. Mostly female here for the R-rated movie at 51%, and 38% of the audience over 35. Diversity demos are 37% Caucasian, a very solid 31% Latino and Hispanic, 16% Black and 10% Asian American. Best markets for the James McAvoy movie are South Central and West with the AMC Burbank the title’s top grossing venue at around $19K so far.
Filing in 4th place, and a commendable start for a wide release documentary is SDG Releasing/Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh documentary, Am I Racist? with $4.75M for the weekend at 1,517 sites after a $1.96M Friday and A Cinemascore and 5 stars on PostTrak. Diversity turnout was 64% Caucasian, 19% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black and 4% Asian American. Mostly men at 56% with 59% of the audience being over 35 and the largest demo being 25-34 at 28%.
In terms of the political background of those buying tickets, PostTrak showed that 52% indentified as conservative and 43% as Republican, 8% politically moderate and 3% registered Democrats. The pic earned an A+ with men under 18 and women under 25. Top markets for the right-wing docu were Los Angeles, NYC, Nashville (Regal Green Hills multiplex there the best in the nation for the pic at $30K so far), Dallas-Ft. Worth and Salt Lake City. However, the top grossing areas were the South, Midwest and Mountain regions. Fifty-nine percent of those in PostTrak exits said they went to the docu because of its subject, which follows Walsh investigating diversity, equity, and inclusion practices, while 39% went because they’re fans of the right-wing commentator. “Like Tucker Carlson, he’s a draw for the right,” commended one rival marketing exec not associated with the film, on how Daily Wire hit the pic’s target audience head-on. Walsh has used the presidential election to market the movie at debates and political party confabs. What can we say? There’s not only box office to be made with right wing audiences, but docus in the post-Covid era can still pull people off the couch. Note, the trailer for Dinesh D’Souza’s Vindicating Trump is playing ahead of the Walsh docu.
The weekend is not without its causalities and that’s unfortunately Lionsgate’s Dave Bautista action comedy, The Killer’s Game, which came in at $2.6M at 2,623 locations. For the Dune and Guardians of the Galaxy actor, it’s his lowest wide opening to date of his career, under the 2018 ensemble Hotel Artemis at $3.2M.
Despite the lackluster turnout here, those who watched the movie gave it a B+ on CinemaScore, but PostTrak moviegoers were harder at 63% positive and a very low 45% recommend.
What’s going on here? The trailer for this movie about a hitman with a life-threatening disease who puts a hit on himself looked great out of CinemaCon. I understand for the longest time the pic’s total awareness on one tracking firm’s sheets were under 30% on Quorum (the tracking firm polls a mix of frequent and casual moviegoers where as NRG covers frequent moviegoers), and if you can’t hit that number for a stretch heading into opening, the film won’t open to north of $5M. Lionsgate sought to make this long-gestating project a directorial reality for their John Wick stuntman J.J. Perry. Had the film opened to $4M-$6M, I understand that Lionsgate would breakeven, eek some money; their action movies reaping the bulk of their cash in the home market. How does that pencil out? Essentially when financially structuring these movies, you start backwards, figuring out how much a streaming partner and foreign sales will commit; this Bautista movie costing under $30M. This ultimately leads to a very limited exposure for Lionsgate, along with a $15M theatrical advertising commitment, predominantly digital. The question is whether that was enough to open the movie. I understand some close to the film wanted a different release date, i.e. January ala Lionsgate’s Gerard Butler movie Plane, which opened to $11.8M 4-day over MLK 2023 and was very profitable for the studio grossing $32.1M worldwide. However, Lionsgate didn’t have a spot and Bautista is busy about to shoot The Wrecking Crew for the rest of Q3 into Q4.
There’s also an argument to be made that when it comes to Batista’s solo box office drawing power, he’s still young in his career, though there’s promise. Stuber opened in a pre-Covid, much healthier marketplace to $8.2M in July 2019. Let’s not forget that Dwayne Johnson had many missteps early on in his theatrical career which he weathered (Walking Tall and Gridiron Gang openings weren’t jawdropping, but their respective openings look rich by today’s standards at $16M and $14M) before his solo career went to another threshold with movies like San Andreas and Black Adam.
According to RelishMix, the social media universe reach on Killer’s Game across X, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook counted 49M, which is -75% below genre norms of action pics.
Conversation per the social media analytics firm “is running mixed with chatter that’s leery of a John Wick clone… ‘This is nothing new this 100% copy cat of John Wick.'”
Demos on Killer’s Game were 64% men, close to half over 35 with 25-34 year olds being the biggest turnout at 28%. Diversity demos were 41% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 15% Black, 14% Asian American & 9% NatAm/Other. The Killer’s Game is playing best on the coasts with the Regal Celebration Point (Florida) the pic’s best venue with less than $5K so far (yikes).
While Lionsgate can manage their margins to some form of breakeven or profitability, the greater loss here stands within the general exhibition ecosystem. With Killer’s Game being the first of five theatrical releases for Lionsgate for the rest of 2024, sources around town have remarked about the stress upon the studio’s marketing division. How can they withstand it or yield great results? There were a ton of one sheet posters for Killer’s Game, and that’s always a sign of a studio’s commitment to a title. Is Lionsgate just cleaning their slate to get to the good stuff in 2025, i.e. Michael at Easter? They do not have a tentpole like last November’s Hunger Games. While the studio can play for singles, they should be wary about the snowball effect that can create, read Killer’s Game was trailered on Borderlands, a movie that no one saw. If they keep underdelivering, then it will become harder for them to book bigger auditoriums with exhibition. That is unless they have a few big tentpoles they can hold over exhibition’s head.
No 10 goes to Fathom’s God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust at 1,392 venues with $500K on Friday, a projected $1.7M 3-day and running four-day of $2M. The movie is playing the faith-based tracks quite well in the South, South Central and Midwest with the AMC Westgate 20 in Arizona the movie’s top multiplex with under $3k.
The chart is updating…updates shown with Saturday and Sunday included..
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is holding better than expected with a $50M second weekend after $14M second Friday, -55% at 4,575 locations. That’s still the second best second weekend of September behind It‘s second frame of $60.1M. Running total by Sunday is $186.4M.
Blumhouse/Universal’s Speak No Evil is also looking better than forecast with $12.5M for Friday-Sunday at 3,375 theaters for a $5M Friday that includes last night’s $1.3M previews.
Marvel Studios/Disney’s Deadpool & Wolverine won’t leave the top 5, staying in third, with $5M at 3,075 theaters in weekend 8, -29%, for a running total of $621.3M by Sunday.
The Matt Walsh right wing docu Am I Racist? booked at 1,517 sites is seeing a Friday estimated at $1.6M, 3-day around $4M. By the way, when it comes to best openings for wide release documentaries in the past ten years, Angel Studios’ After Death last year is the top at $5M.
Lionsgate’s Dave Baustista movie, The Killer’s Game, which is a distribution deal for the company on the less than $30M production, is seeing a Friday take of $1M-$1.5M (including $300K Thursday previews) for a 3-day in the range of $2.5M-$4M, which would get it to fifth place on the higher end. Note this project was in development for 20 years, an adaptation of Jay Bonansinga’s novel. Wesley Snipes was attached to start at one point at the early part of the millennium when it was parked at New Line. There were several filmmakers courted for the pic including John Woo, Wolfgang Petersen, Alex Proyas and more. Paramount took over the project with Andrew Lazar producing and Michael Keaton kicking the tires to headline. Two years ago stuntman-turned-filmmaker J.J. Perry approached Lionsgate to help find a way through with it.
FRIDAY AM: If it’s Friday the 13th, and you’re a studio (especially Blumhouse), you don’t miss the opportunity to program a genre film, and that’s Speak No Evil this weekend. Directed, written and produced by James Watkins the movie made $1.3M from Thursday previews that began at 2 p.m. The Universal-distributed R-rated title is expected to do around $10M off good reviews at 87% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Audience score stands at 86%.
The pic starring James McAvoy, Scoot McNairy and Mackenzie Davis follows a family who gets invited to spend a whole weekend in a lonely home in the countryside, but as the weekend progresses, they realize that the family who invited them has a dark side.
Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice minted $4.5M at 4,575 theaters Thursday, ending its first week at $136.4M. The pic is pacing 14% behind the first week of 2017’s It, also a Warner Bros title under its New Line label, which did $158.7M, finaling at $327.4M. The Tim Burton-directed sequel is expected to do around $40M+ in Weekend 2, which will be the second-best weekend at the September domestic box office.
Lionsgate has the R-rated Dave Bautista action comedy The Killer’s Game, which grossed $300k from Thursday night’s preview shows. The film opens Friday in 2,623 locations. Critics don’t have a sense of humor about the pic at 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. Directed by J.J. Perry off a screenplay by Rand Ravich and James Coyne, the pic is expected to file around $5M.
Also going wide this weekend in around 1,500 sites is the right-wing political commenter Matt Walsh documentary, Am I Racist?, which will debut in the single digits.
In other news on Thursday, Deadpool & Wolverine in 3,400 sites ends Week 7 with $9.4M after a $558K Thursday, -7% from Wednesday for a running total of $616.3M.
Showbiz Direct’s Reagan is doing fantastic ending its second week with a running total of $20.3M — that’s more than the domestic run of Lionsgate’s Borderlands ($15.4M), and it’s about to fly past Apple/Sony’s Fly Me to the Moon ($20.5M). Granted, you can’t compare the demographics on those movies, but it just gives you an idea of a little engine that could from a frosh distributor in the face of bigger studios with bigger fish. Thursday was $475K, -13%, with Week 2 finaling at $7M.
The Vance Null-directed drama God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust received a Fathom release Thursday night, making $365K at 1,392 theaters. Blurb: Amid political and spiritual turmoil, Reverend David Hill (David A.R. White) steps up to run for Congress. Opponent Peter Kane (Ray Wise) aims to erase religion from policy, and the fight becomes a beacon of hope for people seeking moral leadership in a divided world.
20th Century Studios’ Alien: Romulus at 2,560 did $5.6M in Week 4, a running $98.9M cume about to face-hug the century mark this weekend, after a $352K Thursday, -16%.
