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It’s the Valentine’s Day 4-day weekend and nothing says I love you more to moviegoers than Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World and Sony/StudioCanal’s Paddington in Peru.
But it’s also Presidents Day weekend, so consider Captain America to fit that bill. And with ttk% K-12 schools off, expect Paddington in Peru to get some traction as well.
The $180M Captain America: Brave New World which takes place after the events of the Disney+/Marvel series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier after Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson picks up the shield left behind by Steve Rogers, is bound to be more grounded political thriller title ala 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier (3-day opening U.S. $95M) versus anything multiverse. Hence expect a domestic opening at $80M 3-days, $94M 4-day with a global start of $190M in all territories, including China, day and date.
What’s the sell here? Red Hulk and Mackie’s big screen debut as Captain America.
Captain Brave New World finally arrives in theaters after its production was stopped and restarted due to the strikes. Originally, the Julius Onah (The Cloverfield Paradox) directed movie was set to fire off summer 2024 on May 3 before being pushed to July 26, 2025 and then to this weekend. There were reshoots, though nothing that was out of the normal any other MCU movie, we understand.
Right now presales for Captain America: Brave New World are pacing 10%-15% behind that of 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1M) and 40% ahead of 2021’s Eternals ($71.2M). By Friday advance ticket sales should hit $20M. Previews stateside start at 2PM for the movie that also stars Harrison Ford, Danny Ramierz, Tim Blake Nelson, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson and Giancarlo Esposito. Total theaters booked are 4,100 including all premium large format screens and Imax, no doubt. Captain America is targeting at all dudes and families with boys.
Brave New World kicks off Wednesday in such majors as France, Korea and Italy. On Thursday, it notably adds Germany, Brazil, Australia and Mexico. Friday brings the UK, China, Spain and Japan into the mix.
Eyes are on an international launch in the $110M neighborhood. That number factors in about $20M from China — but that market is perhaps more than ever the swing, and not because of the general softening towards studio fare in the past several years.
Rather, China is experiencing a never-before-seen phenomenon with the massive continued success of local title Ne Zha 2. The animated sequel is already at over $1.2B after two weeks in the market (making it the No. 5 animated movie of all time globally) and hasn’t hiccupped since it was first released on January 29. While some audiences may opt for the latest Marvel movie, they will also keep returning in droves to Ne Zha.
In terms of overall overseas Marvel character movie comps on a like-for-like basis at current exchange rates, there’s Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania which bowed to $114M during the same weekend in 2023; 2016’s Doctor Strange at $140M (though a significant part of that was China); 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy at $95M and Captain America: The Winter Soldier with $111M; and 2013’s Thor: The Dark World with $112M.
As for promotional travel, talent recently attended photocalls in London and Rome, and Mackie was at Brazil’s D23 back in November. The Hollywood premiere is tonight for Brave New World. No Rotten Tomatoes critics score yet. We hear exhibitors are content with the movie.
Note also that, contrary to domestic where it goes straight to Peacock, Universal is releasing Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy theatrically overseas, and just in time for Valentine’s Day. Rollout begins on Wednesday, setting up some healthy counterprogramming to Brave New World as the Renée Zellweger fourquel leans into the female audience. In total, 70 markets (83% of international) go this frame including the UK, Australia, Spain, Netherlands and Mexico. France is also releasing, via Studiocanal.
Star-studded premieres have been held in such major cities as London, Sydney, Rome and Amsterdam. Anticipation is high, and it’s possible Bridge edges Cap in some debut markets.
Sony has the StudioCanal $90M threequel Paddington in Peru which has already bagged $104M abroad, $44.7M of that coming from its native UK. (Sony’s offshore territories on the Dougal Wilson directed movie count $19M). Moms with young girls are the target for what is shaping up to be a $15M-$17M 4-day start. The previous chapter, Paddington 2, opened over MLK weekend 2018 after Warner Bros saved the film from the Weinstein Co. bankruptcy, that pic also bowing to $15M over a 4-day holiday.
While Paddington in Peru was set to open this past MLK weekend, Sony pushed it to this coming weekend to stay away from the family melee of Wicked, Moana 2, Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and now the threequel has a clear runway until the next family pic arrives, that being Disney’s Snow White on March 21. Paddington in Peru kicked bowed in the UK back on Nov. 8 to $12.4M –the biggest U.K. opening for a British film since 2021– because that was the ideal date for StudioCanal in that market ahead of Wicked and Moana 2. That was also the best opening for a StudioCanal movie in the U.K. For Sony, Presidents Day weekend was the prime frame for Paddington.
Previews are 2PM Thursday in about 3,000 sites, expanding to 3,700 locations by Friday. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are at a stellar 93% certified fresh.
