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THANKSGIVING UPDATE: Refresh for chart… It turns out Moana, singing witches and gladiators can co-exist together and won’t devour each other. All boats rose in the first day of the Thanksgiving stretch as Disney’s opening day of Moana 2, Universal’s Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II led all titles to a $92.2M Wednesday, which was easily the second highest grossing moviegoing day of 2024 after Friday, July 26, which was when Disney/Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine drove all titles to a $118.3M gross. Read further down, tomorrow, Black Friday, could push yesterday’s harvest to third best of the year.
Moana 2 came in with $57.5M yesterday, including $13.8M Tuesday previews, which made it the gest day ever for a Walt Disney Animation title, and the third best opening for an animated movie after Incredibles 2 ($71.2M) and Inside Out 2 ($63.5M). Disney continues to see a 5-day $175M+ five-day Thanksgiving record, not only for an opening title, but theatrical release during the holiday period. 3-day is at $116M. The swing factor is tomorrow, Black Friday, in regards to how massive, or how short Moana 2 goes. No one is expecting to her to fall into the ocean — rivals see this Disney animated sequel coursing easily past $200M+ by Sunday. Moana 2 gets an A- CinemaScore, which is the same as Frozen 2. Disney’s most watched movie on Disney+, the original Moana, got an A.
Wicked saw its highest weekday gross yesterday so far, and the fourth highest day in its run with a fantastic $20.4M. Doesn’t seem like anyone minds the 2 hour and 40 minute running time, and there is a vibrant confidence from sources about the pic’s legs. This puts the Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo movie toward a second weekend of $63.3M (-44%) and a 5-day of $97.1M. Don’t be surprised if it hits $100M. Running total by Sunday makes it the highest grossing movie based on a Broadway show at $242M. How high does this Jon M. Chu directed musical feature go? The highest grossing musicals of all-time at the box office belong to Warner Bros’ Barbie ($636.2M), The Lion King ($543.6M), and Disney’s live-action take of Beauty and the Beast ($504.4M).
Gladiator II ain’t no chump with a $6.6M Wednesday, second weekend of $28M, -49%, and a 5-day of $40M for a running total by Sunday $107.2M.
Also opening in select NYC and LA theaters was Luca Guadagnino’s Daniel Craig movie, Queer,
As many supp today, moviegoing is expected to be off -44% today to around $51M before soaring to what is expected to be a record $100M+ Black Friday. Not only do people shop, but they go to the movies, too. The best Black Friday was in 2013 according to Comscore when all pics grossed $85M, led by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
MORE….
WEDNESDAY UPDATE: The worst thing a studio can do on a massive weekend like this is over-project. And if there’s one thing about Thanksgiving forecasts, they always get over-projected.
Right now, Disney’s Moana 2 is putting up an estimated $54M first day, inclusive of Tuesday’s Walt Disney Animation preview record of $13.8M. This will coast the Dwayne Johnson-Auli’i Cravalho sequel to at least $170M at 4,200 theaters, easily a Thanksgiving 5-day record opening, unseating Disney’s own Frozen ($93.9M), as well as a movie with the biggest haul over the holiday stretch, topping Frozen 2 ($125M). The 3-day for Moana 2 is somewhere around $90M-$100M+.
Let’s just keep a tab on this: The best opening for Johnson at the domestic box office is Furious 7 at $147.1M in 2015.
This is Disney’s fourth blockbuster north of $100M+ domestic under the Alan Bergman team after Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes; Inside Out 2, the highest-grossing movie of the year; and Deadpool & Wolverine, the top-grossing R-rated movie of all time.
RELATED: The Highest-Grossing Animated Films Of All Time At The Box Office: Photo Gallery
Now, some rivals easily see $200M+ over the Wednesday-Sunday period, and if Moana 2 crosses that threshold, the sequel would squash pervious 5-day opening recordholder The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($204.6M) like a turtle. Keep in mind the first day here for Moana 2 bests the first day of that Illumination/Nintendo title at $31.7M — but that pic didn’t have any previews. Black out Moana 2‘s previews, and the surfer girl is at $40.2M currently.
We’re not done yet…
Wicked by Sunday will stand at $236.9M, arguably the best ever stateside for a movie based on a Broadway musical, burying Grease ($190M). The 5-day on Wicked is estimated at $92M. Today is $18.5M, the pic’s highest weekday so far, +11% over Tuesday, which will plow into a $61M second weekend, -46% at 3,888 theaters. The production cost for both parts of Wicked is $320M before P&A.
RELATED: ‘Wicked – Part One’: All The Box Office Records Broken
Paramount’s Gladiator 2 at 3,580 sites is posting another $6.7M today, for a second weekend of $27.3M, -50% and 5-day of $39.4M and a running total of $106.6M for the $250M feature production.
Some are getting their double dose of The Rock this weekend, also heading to Amazon MGM Studios’ Christmas actioner Red One, which is eyeing a $3M Wednesday, $13M third weekend, -1%, $19M 5-day and running total of $76.3M.
Lionsgate’s fourth weekend of The Best Christmas Pageant Ever at 1,832 locations is seeing $950K today, $3.9M over three days (+14%), 5-day $5.7M and running total of $32.8M.
Remember, the biggest Thanksgiving five-day Wednesday-Sunday frame for all titles belongs to 2018, when Ralph Breaks the Internet opened to No. 1, that period amassing $315.6M per Comscore. It’s looking like we could easily eclipse that benchmark.
RELATED: The Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion At The Box Office: Photo Gallery
