Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 4 Tottenham 0

2 months ago 21

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Newcastle 3.15 v Tottenham 0.74 (4-0)

Brentford 1.09 v Sheff Utd 0.83 (2-0)

Burnley 1.85 v Brighton 0.89 (1-1)

Man City 4.64 v Luton 0.81 (5-1)

Forest 1.76 v Wolves 1.46 (2-2)

Bournemouth 2.39 v Man U 1.52 (2-2)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

All the clubs that won yesterday had the bigger expected goals stat.

In Newcastle’s case, their 3.15 expected goals stat was more than four times higher than Tottenham’s 0.74.

Of the 12 Premier League clubs that played on Saturday, only Man City (4.64) had a higher expected goals stat than Newcastle, who were playing against a team in the top four.

Whilst also interesting to note that as well as the massive goal threat Newcastle United displayed at St James’ Park, they also restricted Tottenham to the very lowest expected goals stat of all the 12 PL teams playing yesterday.

It truly was a totally dominant display by Eddie Howe’s side and these expected goals stats simply reinforce that opinion.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Newcastle 4 Tottenham 0 – Saturday 13 April 12.30pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 30, 51, Gordon 32, Schar 87

Tottenham:

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Tottenham 73% (66%) Newcastle 27% (34%)

Total shots were Tottenham 11 (5) Newcastle 18 (10)

Shots on target were Tottenham 2 (1) Newcastle 5 (2)

Corners were Tottenham 3 (1) Newcastle 16 (10)

Referee: Tim Robinson

Newcastle team v Tottenham:

Dubravka, J Murphy (Livramento 78), Krafth, Schar (Dummett 90+3), Burn, Longstaff, Bruno (White 90+3), Anderson (Ritchie 89), Gordon, Barnes (Hall 88), Isak

Unused subs:

Karius, Gillespie, A Murphy, Parkinson

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Very interesting on Newcastle after 4-0 Spurs hammering – Read HERE)

(Ange Postecoglou deserves credit – Very honest after Newcastle United outclass Tottenham – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 4 Tottenham 0 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Can we play you every week(***) – Newcastle 4 Tottenham 0 – Read HERE)

Newcastle United matches now confirmed for rest of the season:

Wednesday 24 April 2024 – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (8pm)

Saturday 27 April 2024 – Newcastle v Sheff Utd (3pm)

Saturday 4 May 2024 – Burnley v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Wednesday 15 May 2024 – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports