Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Wolves 1 Newcastle 2

2 months ago 22

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Tottenham 0.79 v Arsenal 1.12 (0-1)

Wolves 1.47 v Newcastle United 1.48 (1-2)

As you can see, a couple of interesting results on Sunday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

Though nothing much in it, Arsenal were maybe marginally the better team yesterday in the North London derby and that is backed up by the Expected Goals stats of 0.79 for Spurs and 1.12 for the visitors.

Very few clear chances in the match, as the Expected Goals stats indicate, but if anybody deserved to win then it was the Gunners.

Which then brings us to Molineux.

The Expected Goals stats show the very real story of the match.

Newcastle United (1.48) and Wolves (1.47) almost identical.

United shading it by the very smallest of margins.

I have seen a lot of way over the top negativity (once again!) about Newcastle United’s performance on Sunday, but as these Expected Goals stats suggest, Eddie Howe’s side weren’t incredibly lucky to win. Instead, it was a case of a draw would have been fair on balance of play and chances, but two superb strikes meant it was three points, rather than the one that was probably justified on that balance of play.

The way some media (and Newcastle fans…) go on, you would think it was all one way traffic, Wolves dominant and a siege on the NUFC goal, with next to no action at the other end.

The reality was very different and indeed the more usual match stats (see below) prove that.

Newcastle United had more possession (53% v 47%) than Wolves, more shots (14 v 12), more shots on target (6 v 5) and more corners (7 v 4).

The Expected Goals stats very much in line with these other stats, Newcastle United just shaded it, though a draw would have probably been fair.

Wolves 1 Newcastle 2 – Sunday 15 September 4.30pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Schar 75, Barnes 80

Wolves:

Lemina 36

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Newcastle 51% (63%) Wolves 49% (37%)

Total shots were Newcastle 14 (3) Wolves 12 (5)

Shots on target were Newcastle 6 (1) Wolves 5 (2)

Corners were Newcastle 7 (2) Wolves 4 (2)

Touches in the box Newcastle 22 (7) Wolves 27 (8)

Newcastle United team v Wolves:

Pope, Livramento (Trippier 64), Schar, Burn, Hall, Joelinton (Willock 46), Bruno (Kelly 87), Longstaff (Tonali 46), Jacob Murphy, Isak (Barnes 46), Gordon

Unused subs:

Dubravka, Krafth, Osula, Almiron

(Wolves 1 Newcastle 2 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(3 Positives and 3 Negatives to take from Wolves 1 Newcastle 2 – Read HERE)

(HERE is the photo which all Newcastle United fans are absolutely loving tonight…)

(Wolves 1 Newcastle 2 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

Newcastle United upcoming match schedule, confirmed to end of November:

Saturday 21 September 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3pm)

Tuesday 24 September 2024 – AFC Wimbledon v Newcastle (7.45pm) Sky Sports+

Saturday 28 September 2024 – Newcastle v Man City (12.30 pm) TNT Sports

Saturday 5 October – Everton v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 19 October – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)