Grammy predictions 2025: Who will win the Big Four — and who should

The biggest names in music are coming together for a much-needed night of celebration.

As wildfires continue to ravage California, the 2025 Grammy Awards are still on track to honor the releases we couldn’t turn off over the past year — live from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Sunday.

From Beyoncé, who leads the list of nominations with 11, to Sabrina Carpenter, Kendrick Lamar, Billie Eilish and beyond, Page Six predicts the nominees’ odds of walking away winners in the prestigious Big Four categories below.

Page Six predicts Beyoncé (seen here at the 2024 iHeartRadio Music Awards) will win big at the 2025 Grammys. Billboard via Getty Images Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” is likely to take home record of the year. Island Records Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” deserves the award. Interscope Records

Record of the year

“Now and Then” – The Beatles

“Texas Hold ‘Em” – Beyoncé

“Espresso” – Sabrina Carpenter

“360” – Charli XCX

“Birds of a Feather” – Billie Eilish

“Not Like Us” – Kendrick Lamar

“Good Luck, Babe!” – Chappell Roan

“Fortnight” – Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone

Will win: “Espresso”

Should win: “Not Like Us”

From “Hotel California” and “I Will Always Love You” to “Rolling in the Deep” and “Uptown Funk,” the Recording Academy loves an inescapable hit — and no song fits the bill more this year than Carpenter’s succulent earworm “Espresso.”

Grammy voters, who are primarily (and notoriously) white men over the age of 40, could throw the Beatles one final bone for their long-lost ballad, but it’s unlikely given its lukewarm reviews, not to mention the inevitable upset.

Really, Lamar deserves the prize for “Not Like Us,” arguably the biggest diss track of all time that’s still stinging Drake nearly a year on.

Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” is the top choice for album of the year. Parkwood Entertainment Billie Eilish’s “Hit Me Hard and Soft” could be a close second. Interscope Records

Album of the year

“New Blue Sun” – André 3000

“Cowboy Carter” – Beyoncé

“Short n’ Sweet” – Sabrina Carpenter

“Brat” – Charli XCX

“Djesse Vol. 4” – Jacob Collier

“Hit Me Hard and Soft” – Billie Eilish

“The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” – Chappell Roan

“The Tortured Poets Department” – Taylor Swift

Will win: “Cowboy Carter”

Should win: “Cowboy Carter”

After losing album of the year four times, Beyoncé — the most-awarded artist in Grammy history — will finally get her flowers for “Cowboy Carter,” the only logical choice here.

Yes, “Brat” sparked a movement. Sure, “Short n’ Sweet” birthed a pop star. Of course, “Hit Me Hard and Soft” is a work of art. Duh, “The Tortured Poets Department” made the Eras Tour even more gargantuan. But Queen Bey’s revolutionary country record was a cultural touchstone unlike any other.

To quote her husband, Jay-Z: “The most Grammys, never won album of the year. That doesn’t work.”

Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” is the favorite to win song of the year. Getty Images for Live Nation Entertainment She has won the category at two of the past five Grammys. Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for Live Nation

Song of the year

“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” – Sean Cook, Jerrel Jones, Joe Kent, Shaboozey, Nevin Sastry and Mark Williams (Shaboozey)

“Birds of a Feather” – Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (Billie Eilish)

“Die With a Smile” – Dernst Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars)

“Fortnight” – Jack Antonoff, Post Malone and Taylor Swift (Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone)

“Good Luck, Babe!” – Chappell Roan, Daniel Nigro and Justin Tranter (Chappell Roan)

“Not Like Us” – Kendrick Lamar (Kendrick Lamar)

“Please Please Please” – Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter (Sabrina Carpenter)

“Texas Hold ‘Em” – Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro and Raphael Saadiq (Beyoncé)

Will win: “Birds of a Feather”

Should win: “Birds of a Feather”

The songwriting award is always tricky.

“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” was arguably the most untouchable tune of the year, tying Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road” as the longest-running No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 at 19 weeks, but let’s be real: catchiness ≠ lyrical excellence.

And while “Not Like Us” is the only 2025 nominee to have just one writer, a credit to Lamar’s one-of-a-kind wordplay, “Birds of a Feather” is all but guaranteed to take home the trophy.

Eilish and her brother have won song of the year at two of the past five Grammy Awards (“Bad Guy” in 2020 and “What Was I Made For?” in 2024), so they’re a clear favorite for the academy — and it’d be a shame not to give “Birds,” their most stunning collaboration yet, its due.

The odds are in Chappell Roan’s favor for best new artist. Getty Images Carpenter shouldn’t be counted out, though. Getty Images

Best new artist

Benson Boone

Sabrina Carpenter

Doechii

Khruangbin

Raye

Chappell Roan

Shaboozey

Teddy Swims

Will win: Chappell Roan

Should win: Sabrina Carpenter

Doechii and Shaboozey are both strong contenders for best new artist, but the former almost feels too new (if that’s even possible) while the latter really only had one hit under his cowboy belt.

And so, the make-it-or-break-it category is a toss-up between Carpenter, the former Disney starlet who’s hardly new to the game but worked tirelessly to earn her title as pop’s latest “It” girl, and Roan, the “Femininomenon” whose fandom grew at a rate we haven’t seen since Lady Gaga’s Little Monsters.

Here’s hoping for a tie?

The 67th annual Grammy Awards air Sunday, Feb. 2, at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.