What’s at stake on the final weekend of the NWSL’s regular season

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The National Women’s Soccer League returns starting Friday for one final weekend of the regular season, during which the final two playoff spots will be awarded and seeding for quarterfinal matchups will be finalized.

A year after a wild Decision Day on which all six matches kicked off at the same time and all six had major implications, this year’s conclusion will have less ballyhoo. Not only is there less on the line this year, but the new collection of media rights partners was unable to find a common window to pull off a repeat of 2023. Instead, the games are spread over three days, with each of the three teams competing for the final two spots playing on a different day.

Here is a look at where each NWSL team stands heading into the final weekend.

The Shield Winners: Orlando Pride

The Pride have enjoyed a remarkable season that saw them play their first 23 matches unbeaten before going down to defeat. Then they lost again and the buzzards are circling as they look to buck a few pieces of history.

A well-known fact is that only the 2018 and 2019 North Carolina Courage have won the Shield and then the NWSL Championship. A lesser-known fact is that only last year’s Gotham side won the title after losing two of its final three regular-season matches.

Orlando will be trying to get right at home against the Reign before the Pride become the first Shield winner ever to be asked to win twice just to get to the NWSL Championship. A win would be their 18th, which would set a single-season record, while a draw would take down the points mark (both 2018 Courage). Note that this is also the first NWSL season with 26 games; there were 24 games in 2018.

The quarterfinal hosts: Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC, Kansas City Current

These three will host quarterfinal matches but where they slot in the overall seeding will be decided this weekend. The Spirit currently sit second and will stay there with a win over the Courage, unless Gotham can also win while making up five in the goal difference department. Gotham play Friday, so the Spirit will know by the time they kick off Saturday night.

The Current are a point behind and will win tiebreakers over both the Spirit and Gotham. So they will finish ahead of either or both just by outpointing them over the weekend.

Beyond that, the only known entity is that the Courage will finish fifth, so whoever checks in as the four-seed will host North Carolina in the quarters.

On the stats front, Kansas City’s Temwa Chawinga has already taken the single-season goal mark to new heights with 20 and will win the Golden Boot in her first season playing in the league. That will match Kim Little, who arrived in 2014 and won the Golden Boot for the Reign.

In Washington, Tara McKeown has played every minute this season in central defense. She is part of a group that can be the first to achieve ironwoman status over 26 games, which would encompass 2,340 minutes. (Anna Moorhouse of Orlando, not mentioned above, is among the keepers in line to do the same.)

Clinched a spot: North Carolina Courage, Chicago Red Stars

The Courage have been the “best of the rest” most of the season and may well be in line to host a quarterfinal had they figured out how to win on the road. But the Courage closed up the season 3-10-0 away from WakeMed where they are 9-0-3.

Another result against the Spirit on Saturday will put them level with the 2014-2015 Reign for longest home unbeaten streak in the regular season (22 games). Regardless, they will have to prepare to win on the road in the quarterfinals and again in the semifinals unless the Pride get knocked off by the 8-seed.

Defender Kaleigh Kurtz and goalkeeper Casey Murphy are part of the group that can hit the 2,340 minute mark. Kurtz is currently on a league-record streak of 7,792 minutes dating back to June 26, 2021. Beyond the stats, however, 2023 league MVP Kerolin might be the key to the Courage advancing through the playoffs, so getting her ready to be at her best as she continues to ramp back up from last year’s torn ACL will be a priority.

The Red Stars turned a surprisingly strong start to the season into a return to the playoffs despite being three games under .500 after 25 games. Currently sitting sixth, Chicago can maintain that spot by beating Kansas City on Sunday. The Red Stars will fall behind the Portland Thorns and Bay FC if either outpoints them and behind the Thorns if the Red Stars lose and the Thorns draw. That same scenario will see them edge Bay FC on the goal-difference tiebreaker.

On the doorstep: Portland Thorns FC, Bay FC

It is tough to imagine a team that once won six games in a row still has work to do to capture a playoff spot in a season where 57% of the league will qualify. But that’s where the Thorns are.

The good news is that all they need is a point at home against Angel City. And even if they don’t get that, they are in if Louisville does not beat San Diego or Bay does not get a point in Houston. If they do get in, it will extend Christine Sinclair’s soccer career and give her a chance to become the first player to appear in the NWSL playoffs over 10 different seasons.

Bay FC are in a similar place as the Thorns in that a point against the Houston Dash will earn them a place in the postseason. So will any dropped points by Louisville. The difference is that they lag badly in goal difference and will lose tiebreakers to both the Thorns and Louisville.

Meanwhile, if Bay get a point and the Thorns and Racing wind up tied, goal difference will be front and center. Right now the Thorns are minus-1 to Racing’s minus-4. Louisville needs to finish better than the Thorns, however, because they will lose the second tiebreaker, total wins.

Both Bay and Portland can finish ahead of the Red Stars if they win and the Red Stars don’t. The Thorns will finish ahead of Chicago with a draw and Red Stars loss.

Still lingering: Racing Louisville FC

Racing’s game in San Diego on Sunday will be the 182nd and final one of the season. In the name of keeping it meaningful, the neutrals will be rooting for either Bay FC or the Thorns to give Racing a chance to steal the last spot. If Bay loses, all Racing must do is win. If the Thorns lose but Bay does not, it will require Louisville to win by enough goals to pass the Thorns on goal difference. If both happen, Louisville can jump as high as seventh.

Statistically, defender Abby Erceg and goalkeeper Katie Lund will be gunning for ironwoman streaks, and Lauren Milliet should be in line to appear in her 94th straight match. That includes every regular season contest since Louisville began playing in 2021. It is also the longest current streak in the league.

Playing it out: Utah Royals FC, Angel City FC, San Diego Wave FC, Seattle Reign FC, Houston Dash

With the college draft a thing of the past, playing out the string of games takes on a somewhat different element. No more does finishing at the bottom of the table get you anything besides relative humiliation. These five teams already know the playoffs are not in their future, but only the Reign, Wave, and Dash risk the wooden spoon as the worst team in the league.

The Dash are currently bottom and need a win plus a Wave loss to get out of that spot. They have a remote chance of bypassing the Reign if they win, the Reign lose, and they flip a goal difference gap that is currently at five. Considering the Dash have scored 18 goals in 25 games this season (34 goals in 47 over two seasons), good luck.

If we’re going to split up this group of five though, the Royals and Reign seem to have a jump on the other three. The Royals are 5-3-1 since the Olympic break and have their 2025 coach lined up having taken the interim tag off Jimmy Coenraets. They also added Mina Tanaka, Cloe Lacasse, and Claudia Zornoza and hope to be active over the winter. Kaleigh Riehl has stabilized the defense next to Kate Del Fava, who is also looking for the ironwoman season. The Reign are in more of a transition, but have stability on the sidelines with head coach Laura Harvey unless the recently approved owners — the Carlyle Group, along with the Seattle Sounders — get some crazy ideas about moving on. Better news would be an infusion of money to chase players in the transfer market, something the team lacked last offseason.

How about the others? The Dash have no coach, no general manager, no game-changing players who line up higher than goalkeeper Jane Campbell (also in the ironwoman discussion), whose best years are quickly being wasted. The Wave need to add some quality scoring, likely need a head coach, and are being sued for discrimination — among other allegations — by former employees, which could ultimately blow up the front office under new ownership. They could become the first team to go from winning the NWSL Shield to last place in one season.

Angel City were stung by the 3-point deduction handed them a few weeks ago that took feint playoff hopes and made them basically nonexistent. An inability to hold leads or to play well across 90 minutes is what had made them feint to begin with. They also have a general manager, Angela Hucles Mangano, who is banned from personnel decisions through the end of 2024. But someone — not managing partner Julie Uhrman, who has the same sanction as Hucles Mangano — gave 34-year-old forward Sydney Leroux a three-year contract extension.