Why The NORTH Is Jittery

There have been anxieties among most key Northern elites, leaders and political leaders over the ongoing proposal on regional government in Nigeria that has been sent to President Bola Tinubu, marking a significant step towards potential constitutional change. This has generated a lot of debates especially among the Northern elites who have never been a support of this restructuring.

The drafter of the private bill, Dr. Akin Fapohunda, who had previously indicated his intent to engage with members of the National Assembly before the bill’s transmission, explained his decision to send the proposed law directly to President Tinubu.

The bill, advocating a return to the regional system of government, aims to address long-standing concerns regarding the current federal structure established under Decree 24 of 1999, which was implemented by the then Military Government without the explicit consent of the Nigerian people.

The proposed law is currently before the National Assembly and is expected to be passed into law before October 1, 2024.

This news is has been generating a lot of reactions. A few days back, one of the activists from the north gave some reasons why the Fulani are against regional government.

According to him: “We the Fulani won’t allow Regional Government. It will work against everything we planned for. It is against the words of our father Ahmadu Bello and the dream of our father Uthman Dan Fodio.

It is either you guys are not thinking or you think we the Fulani are not thinking. As far as you will use the Senate or House of Representatives for the introduction of the regional government, it won’t work. We are the Fulani and we are in control of those chambers. We are in control of the Army, Airforce, Immigration, Custom and Police. So we are in charge. If you complain we will tell you to go to the Senate knowing that we are in control. It doesn’t matter who is the Senate president or the president, we are still in charge. The Yoruba can play politics with bill on regional government but they know it won’t work”.

“In fact, it is better we accept division than regional government. With regional government, they will control their region and then come to our land to do business and outsmart our people in business. We won’t let it happen.

Regional government or restructuring is a dream that will never happen as long as we the Fulani are in charge of Nigeria”.

This is why the North won’t allow the President to pass the bill:

In a restructured Nigeria where power is devolved from federal to the state governments, the landmass and population figures wouldn’t count; rather what would matter is how much Internally Generated Revenue figures individual states can boast of.

According to data obtained from the National Population Commission, based on figures from the contentious 2006 census, the North-West zone is the most populated in Nigeria: Kano (9,383,682), Kaduna (6,066,562), Katsina (5,792,578), Jigawa (4,348,649), Sokoto (3,696,999), Zamfara (3,259,846), and Kebbi (3,238,628). The zones combined population is 35,786,944.

The zone has the third largest landmass. Individually this is what they get: Kano (20,680Km2), Kaduna (43,460Km2), Katsina (26,785Km2), Jigawa (22,605Km2), Sokoto (25,973Km2), Zamfara (39,762Km2), and Kebbi (41,855Km2).

And out of Nigeria’s 774 Local Government Areas, the North-West has the largest number with 186. While every state is evenly represented by 3 senators at the Senate, that is not the case with the House of Representatives. The 360 members of the Lower House are elected in single-member constituencies using the simple majority system. Out of this figure, the North-West has the highest at 86. The zone also has the highest number of senators at 21.

Let’s remind you that Nigeria relies heavily on oil revenue to fund its budget, and every month the states through their Commissioners of Finance go to the capital Abuja to attend the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee, FAAC meeting and to collect their share of the oil revenue. Now, how this oil money is shared has a lot to do with each individual states population and local government areas.

While the federal government receives 52.68 percent, the states and local government councils get 26.72 and 20.60 percents respectively. Because the North-West has the highest combined number of LGAs and population, this means the zone gets the biggest share from the 44 percent revenue that accrues to both states and local governments. This is after we minus the 13 percent derivation that accrue to the Niger Delta States for housing the oil deposit.

Another source of revenue shared between the federal, states and local governments is the Value Added Tax, VAT. While the federal government takes 15 percent, the states and local governments get 50 and 35 percents respectively. The sharing formula for the VAT is similar to how the oil revenue is shared.

Based on this lopsided formula that does not recognize hardwork and creativity, lazy states whose sole claim to bigger share of the allocation is in their population and landmass, get bigger share of the VAT generated by hardworking states like Lagos.

But it has been said that bringing the regional government back is like inviting the military to take over the existing structure.

The Nigerian military actually created the presidential system to heal wounds and unify the country after the Civil War in 1967 so anyone trying to change the current presidential system back to a regional government is in effect, fighting the military.

The current presidential system was applied by the military during the Second Republic in 1979 because the regional arrangement had failed and had balkanised Nigeria into mini-states and created a culture of hate amongst the peoples in the regions. If Nigeria couldn’t survive the regional arrangement in the First Republic, it is extremely doubtful if it can today. A regional government in Nigeria will always promote war because of the deep mistrust between the constituent units.