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SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more and chart…The first two weekends of November have proven to be a rich starting point for movies — so why did Hollywood avoid booking tentpoles? It was only two years ago that the month notched its best opening ever on Nov. 11 with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3M). It’s the doom and gloom from the election, right? Because Trump might win, and Harris lose? That’s why Sony/Miramax’s weepy Here was the only major movie last weekend?
Sources tell me that it wasn’t the results of the elections per se they feared despite many around me in California staying at home this past Wednesday, rather how much TV spots had spiked. Apparently, the election drove up rates.
People do go to the movies no matter who wins — if there’s something great to see. Pre-election weekend in 2016 when Trump would ultimately win, Doctor Strange led the box office with a great $85M opening. Post election weekend, Doctor Strange continued its run at No. 1 with a second weekend of $42.9M, however, Paramount’s Denis Villeneuve sci-fi drama, Arrival, was one of two major studio wide studio entries and overindexed with a $24M opening followed by Universal’s Almost Christmas which did $15.1M.
What do we have this weekend? The third frame of Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance still leading with $14M, and two modest budgeted movies, A24’s Heretic with $10.5M and Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever with around $10M, give or take. While both overpeformed their NRG tracking estimates, they are around where exhibition forecasted. While both titles could break even or more for both distributors, it’s meh before the onslaught of Amazon/MGM’s Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans Christmas movie Red One, and the perfect storm troika of Wicked, Gladiator II and Moana II.
I’ve overwritten, and I’ll write again: post Covid, we live in a marketplace where a studio either doubles down on promoting a movie they believe in and hits a homerun, or underspends so that they can make their margins and reap riches post theatrical. Like many faith-based films, The Best Christmas Pageant ever receives a solid A CinemaScore. Heretic is the quintessential A24 movie, a smash with critics at 93% certified fresh and a C+ CinemaScore, an indicator that it’s dividing audiences and creating chatter among them (Ari Aster’s Midsommar earned a C+ while Hereditary, a big grossing title at $44M for the NYC-based label notched a D+).
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FRIDAY PM: At this point in time, the spoils of a slow weekend are going to Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance which is looking at a No. 1 take around $14M for the 3-day after a $3.6M Friday at 3,905 sites. That’s the first time ever that a Venom movie has held the top spot at the box office for three weekends running, and this one opened to the lowest in the franchise at $51M. Previously, 2018’s Venom held the No. 1 spot for two weekends straight. As sources said last weekend about the holds that movies were experiencing post World Series “There’s nothing else out there.” Running total for the Tom Hardy starring, Kelly Marcel directed threequel is $112.8M by EOD Sunday.
In second is A24’s Hugh Grant horror movie Heretic which is seeing around $5M today, including last night’s $1.2M for what’s shaping up to be a $11M-$12M opening at 3,221 theaters. That’s at the top range of where exhibition forecasted the movie. The pic made its world premiere at TIFF and went on to play AFI. A24 made a negative pick-up of the movie from the pic’s producers for around $14M-$15M and sold foreign, keeping domestic.
Venom 3 has Imax and PLFs while Heretic has Dolby auditoriums.
Third place goes to Lionsgate and Kingdom Story’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever which is looking at $4.8M to $5.4M today (including previews of $2.8M) for a $8.5M-$12M opening at 3,020. The movie was shot for a net production cost of $10M with Canadian tax credits. Small share of foreign sales covering this largely domestic driven piece of IP. Lionsgate hopes for a $20M-$25M end game at the domestic box office. If the movie hits $10M, it will rep the second highest opening for Lionsgate YTD after Strangers – Chapter 1 which debuted to $11.8M back in May and finaled at $35.2M U.S./Canada.
The seventh weekend of DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s The Wild Robot at 3,051 sites is $5M, -33% after a $1.25M Friday for a running total by Sunday of $129.2M.
Fifth is Paramount’s fourth weekend of Smile 2 at 2,822 sites for a Friday of $1.4M, 3-day of $4.7M, -30% for a $60.2M cume by EOD Sunday.
Keep in mind that with schools off on Monday, Veterans Day, all these movies are going to see some lagniappe in theirs tills.
FRIDAY AM: A24’s Heretic, the R-rated horror movie from A Quiet Place scribes Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, began its journey this weekend with $1.2 million in previews last night that began at 7 p.m. That figure doesn’t include the Salt Lake City sneaks that recently occurred.
Heretic‘s Thursday number is $100,000 shy from the amount that A24’s Ari Aster horror pic Hereditary did back in summer 2018, but above the $1M that Universal’s Radio Silence horror movie Abigail did and the $725K that Lionsgate/Blumhouse’s Imaginary took in; Abigail opened to $10.2M back in April while Imaginary did $9.9M back in March.
Heretic is expected to open to $10M-$12M and could steal the No. 1 spot from Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance, which is entering its third frame.
The Hugh Grant-starring Heretic is 94% certified fresh with critics and received 3 stars from audiences last night. A24 acquired domestic on the movie.
Also starting off last night was Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, which did $500K yesterday from previews that began at 4 p.m. All in with early access sneaks, the Dallas Jenkins feature take of the Barbara Robinson bestseller counts $2.8M, having grossed $2.3M in one day with early sneaks. NRG tracking the movie at $6M-$8M, with exhibition believing that number is higher.
Best Christmas Pageant Ever is 85% fresh with critics, 99% on the popcorn-meter, 4 1/2 stars with general audiences on PostTrak, 5 stars with parents, and 5 stars with kids under 12.
The rest of the week:
1.) Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 4,131 theaters, Thu $1.6M (-3%), Wk $34.6M, Total $98.6M/Wk 2
As we told you earlier, the Kelly Marcel directed, Tom Hardy starring threequel is crossing $100M today.
2.) Wild Robot (Uni/DWA) 3,237 (-190) theaters Thu $481K (+5%), Wk $10.3M, Total $124.3M/Wk 6
3.) Smile 2 (Par) 3,235 (-389) theaters, Thu $610K (-2%), Wk $9.6M, Total $55.5M/Wk 3
4.) Conclave (Foc) 1,796 (+43) theaters, Thu $542K (-3%) Wk $7.46M , Total $17.3M/ Wk 2
5.) Here (Sony/Miramax) 2,647 theaters, Thu $411K (-9%) Wk $7M/Wk 1
